Tianfeng Securities·2025-09-24 12:43Investment Rating - The industry rating is maintained as "Outperform the Market" [7] Core Viewpoints - The pre-prepared food concept is driving short-term performance in the catering supply sector, with a focus on the upcoming double festival catalysis [5][16] - The overall food and beverage sector experienced a decline of 2.53% from September 15 to September 19, with specific segments like pre-processed foods and soft drinks showing positive performance [23][26] Summary by Sections Market Performance Review - From September 15 to September 19, the food and beverage sector declined by 2.53%, while the Shanghai Composite Index and CSI 300 Index fell by 1.30% and 0.44%, respectively [23] - Specific segment performances included: pre-processed foods (+0.32%), soft drinks (+0.07%), and health products (+0.05%), while snacks (-1.28%) and meat products (-3.64%) saw declines [23] Alcoholic Beverages - The liquor sector saw a decline of 2.95%, underperforming compared to the overall food and beverage sector and the CSI 300 [14] - Key brands like Jinhuijiu and Gujinggongjiu experienced significant drops, with the overall consumption environment remaining under pressure [14] - The current PE-TTM for the liquor index is 19X, indicating a relatively low valuation compared to the past decade [14] Beer Sector - The beer sector showed a slight increase of 0.03%, with brands like Qingdao Beer and Yanjing Beer performing well [15] - Cumulative beer production from January to August 2025 was 26.83 million kiloliters, a slight decrease of 0.2% year-on-year [15] Investment Recommendations - For the liquor sector, three main investment lines are recommended: strong beta stocks (e.g., Jiugui Jiu, Shui Jing Fang), value recovery stocks (e.g., Yingjia Gongjiu), and strong alpha stocks (e.g., Shanxi Fenjiu, Guizhou Moutai) [22] - In the beer sector, focus on companies with sustained growth potential and those benefiting from cost reductions [22] Key Data Tracking - The average price of fresh milk in major production areas was 3.03 yuan/kg as of September 18, 2025, with no year-on-year change [20] - The production capacity of Daizhou yellow wine increased from 18,000 tons to 130,000 tons over the past three years, with a reported output value of 263 million yuan in the first half of the year, up 14.3% year-on-year [14]