有色金属日报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Copper: Neutral (represented by white stars, indicating short - term equilibrium and low operability) [1] - Aluminum: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Alumina: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Zinc: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Lead: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: Bearish (represented by green stars) [1] - Tin: Neutral (represented by white stars) [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] - Industrial Silicon: Not clearly rated in terms of stars [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish (represented by red stars) [1] Core Views - The performance of the non - ferrous metals market is diverse, with different metals facing different supply - demand situations and price trends. Some metals are affected by seasonal factors, policy changes, and macro - economic conditions [2][3][4] - There are differences in price trends among metals, with some in a bullish or bearish state, and some in a state of short - term equilibrium, requiring different investment strategies such as observation, holding, or partial profit - taking [2][7][11] Summaries by Metals Copper - Wednesday saw a narrow - range shock in Shanghai copper with reduced positions. Spot copper was reported at 80,045 yuan, and the Shanghai copper premium remained at 55 yuan. With mediocre manufacturing performance in Europe and the US in September, there was pre - holiday stocking, but concerns about copper - related consumption indicators remained, and social inventory was still accumulating this month. It is recommended to wait and see [2] Aluminum, Alumina, and Aluminum Alloy - Shanghai aluminum had limited fluctuations, and the spot premium and discount in various regions rebounded slightly. Downstream开工 continued to pick up seasonally, but the apparent demand in September was lower than expected. There were signs of inventory reduction in aluminum ingots due to pre - holiday replenishment, and Shanghai aluminum was expected to fluctuate between 20,500 - 21,000 yuan. Cast aluminum alloy followed Shanghai aluminum's fluctuations, and the Baotai spot price remained at 20,300 yuan. The supply of scrap aluminum was tight, and the expected tax policy adjustment increased enterprise costs. Alumina's operating capacity reached a record high of nearly 98 million tons, and industry inventory continued to rise. With obvious supply surplus, prices were falling. The current price still allowed profit for production capacity in Shanxi and Henan, so it was difficult to trigger production cuts, and the support level was around 2,800 yuan in June [3] Zinc - The import loss of zinc ingots exceeded 3,000 yuan/ton, and the expectation of zinc exports strengthened. LME zinc fell from a high. In China, the consumption peak season was not prosperous. Affected by tariffs, the export of galvanized sheets weakened in August. Under the influence of Super Typhoon "Hagupit", consumption in the Pearl River Delta region shrank temporarily, and the expectation of zinc ingot inventory accumulation strengthened. Shanghai zinc continued to decline with increasing positions, and the lower support level was at 21,500 yuan/ton [4] Lead - The profit of recycled lead was repaired, and the expectation of resuming production strengthened. The price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton. Downstream enterprises made rigid and selective purchases, and the pre - holiday stocking demand was coming to an end. High - price lead ingot transactions were weak. Some long - position holders in the futures market took profits at high prices. Shanghai lead felt obvious pressure at 17,200 yuan/ton. There were still plans for primary lead smelters to conduct maintenance in late September, and the overall increase in recycled lead supply was limited. The supply - demand of lead was weak on both sides, and the contradiction was limited. It was expected to consolidate between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [6] Nickel and Stainless Steel - Shanghai nickel fluctuated with dull market trading. Short - term macro - favorable factors were basically exhausted, and the cost - side had insufficient upward momentum, so the rising trend of stainless steel spot prices was difficult to sustain. However, the pre - National Day stocking demand was gradually emerging, and stainless steel mills were still in a state of cost inversion, showing cost - side support. The pure nickel inventory increased by 430 tons to 41,500 tons, the nickel - iron inventory decreased by 600 tons to 28,700 tons, and the stainless steel inventory decreased by 5,000 tons to 897,000 tons. The long - position themes of Shanghai nickel were exhausted, and nickel prices were in a weak state and about to start a downward trend [7] Tin - Shanghai tin closed up with a shock. Today's spot tin was 271,400 yuan, and the delivery month was at par with the spot in real - time. Overnight, LME tin fluctuated above the key support level of $34,000. There were still supply - side themes in the market, including the slow resumption of Burmese ore supply and the uncertainty of mining certificates for Indonesian coal mines and various ore types. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term [8] Lithium Carbonate - Lithium prices fluctuated strongly in the short term, and market trading was active. The total market inventory decreased by 1,000 tons to 137,500 tons, the smelter inventory decreased by 1,800 tons to 34,000 tons, and the downstream inventory increased by 1,200 tons to 59,500 tons. The lower support for lithium prices was evident, but the selling actions in the industrial chain were basically completed. After the interest rate cut and the ebb of anti - involution, the price was pressured by expectations [9] Industrial Silicon - The industrial silicon futures price strengthened, mainly due to the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. The average price of SMM East China oxygen - containing 553 silicon remained at 9,500 yuan/ton. Fundamentally, the operating rate in Xinjiang continued to increase slightly, while Sichuan and Yunnan continued their high operating rates during the wet season. On the demand side, the incremental release of polysilicon and organic silicon was insufficient, and the SMM latest industrial silicon social inventory increased by 4,000 tons week - on - week. Although the market sentiment and cost expectations drove the short - term strengthening of the futures price, the support for continuous rise was insufficient, and it was expected to continue to fluctuate [10] Polysilicon - The polysilicon futures price strengthened today, mainly due to a technical rebound and the spread of the overall market up - trend sentiment. On the spot side, the quoted price range of N - type re -投料 was stable at 50,300 - 55,000 yuan/ton (SMM). In September, the polysilicon industry's production plan was about 130,000 tons (SMM), with limited month - on - month changes. In October, due to industry self - discipline, the production plans of silicon wafers and polysilicon were expected to be adjusted down synchronously, and there was still a slight pressure of inventory accumulation for polysilicon. On the policy side, the elimination of production capacity continued to be advanced gradually, and the current supply - demand pattern did not provide strong support. Without substantial new favorable factors, the short - term futures price was expected to fluctuate within a range, and it was recommended to take partial profits during the technical rebound [11]