黑色金属日报-20250924

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Thread: ☆☆☆ [1] - Hot-rolled coil: ☆☆☆ [1] - Iron ore: ☆☆☆ [1] - Coke: ★☆☆ [1] - Coking coal: ★☆★ [1] - Manganese silicon: ★☆☆ [1] - Ferrosilicon: ★☆★ [1] Core Views - Steel products have an overall weak domestic demand, with exports remaining high, and the market is expected to be mainly range-bound [2] - Iron ore is expected to be mainly in high-level oscillation [3] - Coke prices are relatively firm with a slight premium on the futures market [4] - Coking coal prices are relatively firm with a premium on the futures market [5] - Manganese silicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [6] - Ferrosilicon is recommended to go long on dips under the "anti-involution" background [7] Summary by Related Catalogs Steel - Thread: Surface demand has recovered, production has continued to decline, and inventory has gradually decreased [2] - Hot-rolled coil: Demand remains resilient, production stays high, and inventory continues to accumulate [2] - Overall: Ironwater production remains high, but low profit per ton restricts further production resumption. Downstream demand is weak, and the market is mainly range-bound [2] Iron Ore - Supply: Global shipments have declined from the high level, and domestic arrivals have rebounded. There is no significant pressure on port inventory accumulation [3] - Demand: Domestic terminal demand is weak, but high ironwater production supports short-term demand. Steel mills have increased imported ore inventory and still have pre-holiday replenishment needs [3] - Market: With the Fed's interest rate cut and domestic policies to be followed up, speculative sentiment has cooled. It is expected to be mainly high-level oscillation [3] Coke - Production: Coking profit is average, and daily production has slightly decreased [4] - Inventory: Overall inventory has increased [4] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a slight premium [4] Coking Coal - Production: Coal mine production has slightly increased, and short-term production suspension has basically recovered [5] - Inventory: Total inventory has increased, and production-end inventory has slightly decreased [5] - Market: Carbon element supply is abundant, and high ironwater production supports prices. The futures market has a premium [5] Manganese Silicon - Production: Weekly production has continued to increase, and inventory has not increased [6] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is good. It is recommended to go long on dips [6] Ferrosilicon - Production: Supply has recovered to a high level, and inventory has slightly decreased [7] - Market: Ironwater production has increased, and demand is acceptable. It is recommended to go long on dips [7]