债市基本面高频数据跟踪报告2025年9月第3周:集运运价指数低位深跌
SINOLINK SECURITIES·2025-09-24 15:23
- Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Economic growth shows a deep decline in the container shipping freight index at a low level, with power plant daily consumption experiencing a seasonal decline, and inflation marked by a further drop in pork prices [1][2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Economic Growth: Deep Decline in Container Shipping Freight Index at a Low Level 3.1.1 Production: Seasonal Decline in Power Plant Daily Consumption - Power plant daily consumption has declined seasonally. On September 23, the average daily consumption of 6 major power - generating groups was 864,000 tons, a 4.0% decrease from September 16. On September 17, the daily consumption of power plants in eight southern provinces was 2.262 million tons, a 0.4% decrease from September 10 [4]. - The blast furnace operating rate has continued to rise. On September 19, the national blast furnace operating rate was 84.0%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase from September 12, and the capacity utilization rate was 90.4%, also a 0.2 - percentage - point increase. In Tangshan, the blast furnace operating rate of steel mills was 93.0% on September 19, a 2.4 - percentage - point increase from September 12 [4]. - The tire operating rate has rebounded moderately. On September 18, the operating rate of truck all - steel tires was 65.7%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, and that of passenger car semi - steel tires was 73.7%, a 0.2 - percentage - point increase [4]. - The operating rate of looms in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions has slightly declined. On September 18, the operating rate of polyester filament in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions was 91.5%, a 0.1 - percentage - point increase from September 11, while the operating rate of downstream looms was 62.2%, a 0.2 - percentage - point decrease [4]. 3.1.2 Demand: New Home Sales in 30 Cities Exceeded the Same Period Last Year - From September 1 - 23, the average daily sales area of commercial housing in 30 large and medium - sized cities was 210,000 square meters, an 8.8% increase from the same period in August, a 13.7% increase from September last year, and a 30.6% decrease from September 2023 [4]. - The retail trend in the auto market has been stable. In September, retail sales increased by 1% year - on - year, and wholesale sales increased by 0% year - on - year [4]. - Steel prices have been weak. On September 23, the prices of rebar, wire rod, hot - rolled coil, and cold - rolled coil decreased by 0.9%, 1.1%, 2.0%, and increased by 0.03% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - Cement prices have weakly rebounded. On September 23, the national cement price index increased by 2.3% compared to September 16, with prices in the East China and Yangtze River regions rising by 3.5% and 4.8% respectively [4]. - Glass prices have fluctuated widely. On September 23, the active futures contract price of glass was 1,181 yuan/ton, a 4.4% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The container shipping freight index has deeply declined at a low level. On September 19, the CCFI index decreased by 0.5% compared to September 12, and the SCFI index dropped by 14.3% [4]. 3.2 Inflation: Further Drop in Pork Prices 3.2.1 CPI: Further Drop in Pork Prices - Pork prices have further declined. On September 23, the average wholesale price of pork was 19.6 yuan/kg, a 1.6% decrease from September 16 [4]. - The agricultural product price index has moderately rebounded. On September 23, the agricultural product wholesale price index increased by 0.2% compared to September 16. By variety, eggs (up 4.4%) > fruits (up 1.3%) > mutton (up 0.6%) > chicken (up 0.5%) > beef (up 0.4%) > vegetables (up 0.2%) > pork (down 1.6%) [4]. 3.2.2 PPI: Weak Oscillation in Oil Prices - Oil prices have shown a weak oscillation. On September 23, the spot prices of Brent and WTI crude oil were $68.6 and $63.4 per barrel respectively, a 0.03% and 1.7% decrease from September 16 [4]. - Copper and aluminum prices have turned down. On September 23, the prices of LME 3 - month copper and aluminum decreased by 1.7% and 2.9% respectively compared to September 16 [4]. - The decline in the domestic commodity index has widened on a month - on - month basis. On September 23, the Nanhua Industrial Products Index decreased by 2.1% compared to September 16, and the CRB index decreased by 1.3% [4].