商品期货早班车-20250925

Report Investment Ratings The report does not provide an overall investment rating for the industry. 2. Core Views - The de - dollarization logic remains unchanged, but there are contradictions in the Fed's outlook. Precious metals prices are at historical highs, with a risk of a peak, and it is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - For base metals, copper is recommended to be bought on dips due to supply disruptions and relatively optimistic demand; aluminum is recommended to be bought on dips considering the slowdown of inventory accumulation and expected post - holiday destocking; alumina is recommended to be temporarily observed as the supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged; industrial silicon is expected to oscillate within a certain range, and it is recommended to wait and see; lithium carbonate is expected to oscillate in price, and it is recommended to observe; polysilicon is expected to oscillate within a range, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [2][3]. - In the black industry, for rebar, it is mainly recommended to wait and see, and try the 10/5 reverse spread; for iron ore, it is recommended to try to go long on the 2601 contract and the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread; for coking coal, it is mainly recommended to wait and see and try the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. - In the agricultural products market, for soybean meal, short - term trading is based on weak export expectations, and the medium - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies; for corn, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline; for sugar, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options; for cotton, it is recommended to wait and see; for logs, it is recommended to wait and see; for palm oil, the short - term is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel policies; for eggs, the price is expected to oscillate weakly; for live pigs, the futures price is expected to be weak [5][6][7]. - In the energy and chemical industry, LLDPE is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; PVC is recommended to be short - allocated; PTA is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies for far - month contracts; rubber is expected to continue to oscillate, with a bullish view in the medium - term; glass is recommended to be long - allocated; PP is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; MEG is recommended to close out short positions; crude oil is recommended to be shorted on rallies; styrene is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term; soda ash and caustic soda are recommended to wait and see [8][9][10]. 3. Summary by Commodity Category Precious Metals - Gold: The international gold price closed at $3736 per ounce, down 0.74%. There are many international events, and domestic gold ETF funds are flowing out. It is recommended to take partial profits on long positions or buy out - of - the - money put options before the holiday [1]. - Silver: It followed gold to reach a new high. The market heat increased, and it is also recommended to take partial profits before the holiday [1]. Base Metals - Copper: The copper price rose significantly. Due to supply disruptions and relatively optimistic demand, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Aluminum: The price of the electrolytic aluminum main contract increased slightly. With supply increasing and demand recovering, it is recommended to buy on dips [2]. - Alumina: The price of the main contract increased. The supply - demand surplus pattern remains unchanged, and it is recommended to temporarily observe [3]. - Industrial Silicon: The price oscillated upward. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to oscillate within the 8700 - 9800 range, and it is recommended to wait and see [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: The price of the main contract decreased. With supply increasing and demand changing, it is expected to oscillate between 68,000 - 75,000 yuan, and it is recommended to observe [3]. - Polysilicon: The price oscillated upward. With a supply - strong and demand - weak pattern, it is expected to oscillate within the 48,000 - 57,000 yuan range, and attention can be paid to the 11 - 12 reverse spread opportunity [3]. Black Industry - Rebar: The price of the main contract increased. With limited supply - demand contradictions and obvious structural differentiation, it is mainly recommended to wait and see, and try the 10/5 reverse spread [4]. - Iron Ore: The price of the main contract increased slightly. With supply and demand remaining neutral - strong, it is recommended to try to go long on the 2601 contract and the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. - Coking Coal: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. With supply and demand changes and high futures valuation, it is mainly recommended to wait and see and try the iron ore - coking coal 01 contract spread [4]. Agricultural Products - Soybean Meal: The overnight CBOT soybean price fell. With supply and demand changes, short - term trading is based on weak export expectations, and the medium - term focus is on Sino - US tariff policies [5]. - Corn: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price rose. With supply increasing and demand weak, the futures price is expected to oscillate and decline [6]. - Sugar: The price of the main contract increased. With international and domestic supply and demand changes, it is recommended to go short in the futures market and sell call options [6]. - Cotton: The overnight US cotton price fell again. With international and domestic supply and demand changes, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Logs: The price of the main contract decreased slightly. With stable supply and demand, it is recommended to wait and see [6]. - Palm Oil: The price rebounded. With supply and demand changes, the short - term is expected to be weak, and attention should be paid to production areas and biodiesel policies [6]. - Eggs: The futures price oscillated narrowly, and the spot price fluctuated. With supply and demand changes, the price is expected to oscillate weakly [6]. - Live Pigs: The futures price rebounded, and the spot price fluctuated narrowly. With supply and demand changes, the futures price is expected to be weak [7]. Energy and Chemical Industry - LLDPE: The main contract oscillated slightly. With supply increasing and demand improving but not meeting expectations, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [8]. - PVC: The price of the v01 contract increased. With a weak supply - demand balance, it is recommended to short - allocate [8]. - PTA: The PX price is at a certain level, and the PTA price has a certain basis. With supply and demand changes, it is recommended to short the processing fee on rallies for far - month contracts [8]. - Rubber: The price of the main contract increased slightly. With raw material prices stabilizing and supply - demand weak expectations, it is expected to continue to oscillate, with a bullish view in the medium - term [8]. - Glass: The price of the fg01 contract increased significantly. With improved expectations, it is recommended to long - allocate [9]. - PP: The main contract oscillated slightly. With supply increasing and demand improving, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [9]. - MEG: The price has a certain basis. With supply and demand in a relatively balanced and loose state, it is recommended to close out short positions [9]. - Crude Oil: The price rose again. With supply increasing and demand weakening, it is recommended to short on rallies [9]. - Styrene: The main contract rebounded slightly. With supply and demand changes, it is expected to oscillate in the short - term and it is recommended to go short on rallies or do a month - spread reverse spread in the long - term [10]. - Soda Ash: The price of the sa01 contract increased. With supply and demand in balance, it is recommended to wait and see [10]. - Caustic Soda: The price of the sh01 contract increased slightly. With supply and demand changes, it is recommended to wait and see [10].