集运指数（欧线）：短期波动放大

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating The provided text does not mention the report industry investment rating. 2. Core View of the Report - The container shipping index (European Line) showed a volatile and slightly stronger trend yesterday. For the 2510 contract, there are potential upside risks, and it is advisable to consider shorting opportunities at 1200 - 1250 points. For the 2512 contract, it should not be over - estimated, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity. For the 2602 contract, the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts is unclear. In the long - term, pay attention to the opportunities of 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads [9][12][13]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Fundamental Tracking - Futures Data: The EC2510 contract closed at 1114.4 points, up 2.67%; the EC2512 contract closed at 1696.5 points, up 4.56%; the EC2602 contract closed at 1588.1 points, up 3.33%. The trading volume to open interest ratios of EC2510, EC2512, and EC2604 were 1.14, 1.16, and 0.57 respectively [1]. - Freight Index: The SCFIS European route index was 1254.92 points, down 12.9% week - on - week; the SCFIS US West route index was 1193.64 points, down 11.6% week - on - week. The SCFI European route index was $1052/TEU, down 8.8% bi - weekly; the SCFI US West route index was $1636/FEU, down 31.0% bi - weekly [1]. - Spot Freight Rates: The central price of the 40 - 41 week list price dropped to around $1450/FEU, equivalent to about 1015 points on the SCFIS index. Different alliances have different price adjustments, such as the Gemini Alliance's Maersk raising the price in the 42nd week, while some other companies' prices are stable or decreasing [10]. - Exchange Rates: The US dollar index was 97.23, and the US dollar against the offshore RMB was 7.11 [1]. 3.2 Capacity Situation - October: The AEU3 route of COSCO will be changed from normal operation to a blank voyage in October, and HPL cancelled its additional ship at the beginning of October. The average weekly capacity in October was revised down to 265,000 TEU/week, with a year - on - year growth rate of 0.5%, a significant decline compared with July - September. The blank voyages are mainly concentrated in the second week of October [11]. - November: The HMM Alliance announced a blank voyage plan for the PA Alliance, and MSC will launch 3 new ships. The number of undetermined voyages in November (weeks 44 - 48) has been reduced to 2, with 5 blank voyages and 1 additional ship. Excluding undetermined voyages, the average weekly capacity is currently 310,000 TEU/week, a year - on - year increase of 10% and a month - on - month increase of 16% [11]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - 2510 Contract: The delivery settlement price sample of the 2510 contract comes from the containers departing in weeks 41 - 43. If Maersk's price increase is implemented and other shipping companies follow suit, the SCFIS average in weeks 41 - 43 may be around 1215 points (±30 points), but considering ship delays, it is likely to be within 1200 points. If the price increase is not implemented, the delivery price of the 2510 contract is likely to be within 1100 points [12]. - 2512 Contract: There are two negative factors in December this year compared with last year. The 2512 contract may rise in the short - term due to price - increase sentiment, and it is recommended to wait for further guidance from the November sailing suspension intensity [13]. - 2602 Contract: Since the Spring Festival in 2026 is half a month later than in 2025, it is difficult to determine the relative valuation between the 12 and 02 contracts [13]. 3.4 Strategy Suggestion - Short - term: Pay attention to the opportunity of shorting the 2510 contract at 1200 - 1250 points. - Long - term: Pay attention to the opportunities of widening the 02 - 04 and 12 - 04 positive spreads at low levels [13].