渤海证券研究所晨会纪要（2025.09.25）-20250925

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced fluctuations last week, with the STAR 50 index rising the most by 3.63%, while the Shanghai Composite Index fell the most by 1.04% [2] - As of September 23, the margin trading balance in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets reached 240.90 billion yuan, an increase of 24.19 billion yuan from the previous week [2] - The average margin trading balance per investor increased to 1,332,814 yuan, up by 15,686 yuan from the previous week [2] Industry Insights Steel Industry - The release of the growth stabilization plan for the steel industry is expected to support short-term demand due to pre-holiday inventory replenishment by downstream enterprises [5] - The plan emphasizes precise control of production capacity and quality improvement, which may enhance the competitive landscape and optimize product structure [6] - Future demand in shipbuilding and construction steel sectors is anticipated to be boosted, along with export demand [6] Copper Industry - Tight copper ore supply is expected to support copper prices, with domestic growth policies and the U.S. entering a rate-cutting cycle likely to bolster demand [7] - The "anti-involution" policy may improve the copper smelting and processing landscape [7] Aluminum Industry - The aluminum sector is seeing improved margins due to new alumina project capacities, with the "anti-involution" policy expected to gradually enhance the supply landscape [7] - Demand is anticipated to improve with domestic growth policies and the U.S. rate-cutting cycle [7] Lithium and Cobalt Industries - The lithium market faces pressure from oversupply despite improving demand in the energy storage sector [6] - The extension of the cobalt export ban in the Democratic Republic of Congo is expected to maintain a tight supply situation, potentially strengthening cobalt prices in the short term [8] Rare Earth Industry - Demand for rare earths is expected to be supported by domestic export control relaxations and high overseas smelting costs [7] - The development of humanoid robots and new energy sectors is anticipated to provide new momentum for demand [8] Investment Recommendations - The report maintains a "positive" rating for the steel and non-ferrous metal industries, recommending stocks such as Luoyang Molybdenum (603993) and Zijin Mining (601899) for "overweight" ratings [8] - The humanoid robot sector is highlighted for its growth potential, with significant investments expected to accelerate production [10]