国新国证期货早报-20250925

Variety Views Stock Index Futures - On September 24th, A-share major indices strengthened collectively. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83% to 3853.64 points, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.80% to 13356.14 points, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28% to 3185.57 points, and the STAR 50 Index rose 3.49% to 1456.47 points. The trading volume of the two markets reached 2326.8 billion yuan, a decrease of 167.6 billion yuan from the previous day. The CSI 300 Index was strong, closing at 4566.07, a month-on-month increase of 46.29 [1]. Coke and Coking Coal - On September 24th, the coke weighted index fluctuated and sorted out, closing at 1747.4, a month-on-month increase of 20.8. The coking coal weighted index fluctuated within the range, closing at 1234.2 yuan, a month-on-month increase of 14.0. Coke's spot price declined, coke enterprise profits decreased, and the enthusiasm for starting work declined, resulting in a month-on-month contraction in coke supply. The real demand for coke was at a high level, and downstream enterprises purchased on demand. For coking coal, domestic coal supply slowly recovered, and Mongolian coal customs clearance recovered. However, the downstream's acceptance of high-priced resources decreased [1][2]. Zhengzhou Sugar - Affected by technical factors, US sugar stopped falling and rebounded on Tuesday. Driven by the rise of US sugar and the approaching long holiday, the Zhengzhou sugar 2601 contract rose on Wednesday. China's refined sugar production in August 2025 was 454,000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 49.3%. The cumulative production from January to August was 10.284 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.1%. India may allow 1 million tons of sugar exports in the next season [2]. Rubber - Affected by the approaching long holiday, both long and short funds reduced their positions to avoid risks. Shanghai rubber fluctuated narrowly and closed slightly higher on Wednesday. From January to August 2025, China's rubber tire export volume reached 6.5 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.1%. The export volume of automobile tires from January to August was 5.55 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 4.6% [3]. Palm Oil - On September 24th, palm oil futures prices stopped falling and rebounded, mainly fluctuating narrowly. The closing price of the main contract P2601 was 9126, a 0.8% increase from the previous day. It is expected that Indonesia's palm oil exports to the EU will increase from an estimated 3.3 million metric tons this year to about 4 million metric tons in 2026. Exports to India are expected to increase from 4.8 million tons last year to 5 million tons in 2025 [3][5]. Soybean Meal - Internationally, on September 24th, CBOT soybean futures declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tariffs on agricultural products, squeezing US soybean export shares. The US soybean harvest progress was advancing orderly, but the excellent rate was lower than expected, which supported prices to some extent. Domestically, on September 24th, the main contract of soybean meal M2601 closed at 2930 yuan/ton, a 0.07% increase. After Argentina cancelled export tariffs, Chinese buyers ordered at least 10 ships of Argentine soybeans. In a context of loose supply, soybean meal prices may fluctuate weakly [5]. Live Pigs - On September 24th, live pig futures rebounded from a low level. The main contract LH2511 closed at 13345 yuan/ton, a 0.98% increase. Currently, the production capacity was in a stage of concentrated release, and the market supply pressure was relatively large. Although the pre - holiday stocking enthusiasm had increased, market consumption had not reached the expected level. In the short term, live pig futures prices may maintain a weakly fluctuating trend [6]. Shanghai Copper - Shanghai copper fluctuated narrowly during the day, with the main contract closing at 79960 yuan/ton, a 0.03% increase. Concerns about supply due to the shutdown of Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine persisted. Freeport - McMoRan expected a 4% decline in copper sales in the third quarter. LME copper inventories were falling, and domestic refined copper social inventories also decreased, but downstream demand was not strong. Future focus included domestic policy trends, US macro - indicators, and inventory changes [7]. Logs - On September 24th, the 2511 log contract opened at 807, with the lowest at 802, the highest at 808, and closed at 803, with a reduction of 362 lots. The futures price rebounded above the 10 - day moving average of 805. Attention should be paid to the support at the 800 mark and the pressure at 815 - 820. The spot prices in Shandong and Jiangsu remained flat. There was no major contradiction in the supply - demand relationship, and spot transactions were weak [7][8]. Iron Ore - On September 24th, the main contract of iron ore 2601 closed flat after fluctuating, with a closing price of 803.5 yuan. The current iron ore shipments declined, arrivals increased, and iron water production continued to increase slightly at a high level. As the holiday approached, steel mills still had some procurement and replenishment needs, showing a pattern of increasing supply and demand. In the short term, iron ore prices were in a fluctuating trend [8]. Asphalt - On September 24th, the main contract of asphalt 2511 closed up after fluctuating, with a 0.44% increase and a closing price of 3392 yuan. Refinery production in October was expected to increase, and supply might increase. The pre - holiday rush in the north supported demand, but the demand in the south was weak due to typhoon and rainfall. In the short term, asphalt prices would mainly fluctuate [9]. Cotton - On Wednesday night, the main contract of Zhengzhou cotton closed at 13520 yuan/ton. Cotton inventories decreased by 199 lots compared with the previous trading day. The price of Xinjiang machine - picked cotton was about 6.15 - 6.5 yuan/kg [9]. Steel - On September 24th, rb2601 closed at 3164 yuan/ton, and hc2601 closed at 3357 yuan/ton. In September, steel demand recovered slowly, high - priced resource transactions were poor, and low - priced resource transactions were okay. Supply and demand were generally balanced. The cost of steel still had support, and in the short term, steel prices might fluctuate within a narrow range [9]. Alumina - On September 24th, ao2601 closed at 2877 yuan/ton. The core contradiction in bauxite was the co - existence of tight domestic supply, low Guinea shipments, and high bauxite inventories. Alumina inventories were increasing, and prices continued to fall. The oversupply situation would continue, and prices might be weak in the short term [10]. Shanghai Aluminum - On September 24th, al2511 closed at 20705 yuan/ton. The core factors affecting aluminum prices were macro - policy expectations and peak - season fundamentals. After the interest rate cut in September, the macro - drive paused, and the focus of Shanghai aluminum trading might shift to fundamentals, with inventory being the key point. After the short - term price correction, downstream trading sentiment improved, and Shanghai aluminum might maintain a slightly strong fluctuating trend [10].