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尿素早评:关注逢低做多机会-20250925
Hong Yuan Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:30

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report. 2. Core View of the Report - The report recommends paying attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract of urea futures. Currently, urea has fallen to a certain cost - effective level, with upstream profits at a relatively low level and the valuation being relatively cheap. There are two potential upward drivers for urea prices in the future: on the supply - side, there is an expectation of renovation of old - aged production facilities (old facilities over 20 years account for about 20% and the current comprehensive operating rate is close to 80% with limited idle capacity); on the demand - side, there is an expectation of improved exports, especially in September - October, given the easing relationship between China and India. Therefore, the space for further decline of urea prices is limited [1]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Urea Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On September 24, UR01 closed at 1673 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan or 0.90% from September 23; UR05 closed at 1724 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.64%; UR09 closed at 1745 yuan/ton, up 11 yuan or 0.63% [1]. - Domestic Spot Prices (Small - Granule): In Shandong, it was 1610 yuan/ton with no change; in Shanxi, 1490 yuan/ton with no change; in Henan, it dropped 10 yuan to 1610 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.62%; in Hebei, 1650 yuan/ton with no change; in Northeast China, 1660 yuan/ton with no change; in Jiangsu, 1620 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.2 Basis and Spread - The basis of Shandong spot - UR was - 114 yuan/ton on September 24, down 11 yuan from September 23. The spread of 01 - 05 was - 51 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan [1]. 3.3 Upstream and Downstream Prices - Upstream Costs: The price of anthracite coal in Henan was 1000 yuan/ton with no change, and in Shanxi, it was 880 yuan/ton with no change [1]. - Downstream Prices: The price of compound fertilizer (45%S) in Shandong was 2930 yuan/ton with no change, in Henan, it was 2520 yuan/ton with no change. The price of melamine in Shandong was 5017 yuan/ton with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 5200 yuan/ton with no change [1]. 3.4 Important Information - On the previous trading day, the opening price of the main contract 2601 of urea futures was 1662 yuan/ton, the highest price was 1681 yuan/ton, the lowest price was 1658 yuan/ton, the closing price was 1673 yuan/ton, and the settlement price was 1672 yuan/ton. The position of 2601 was 300119 lots [1]. 3.5 Trading Strategy - Pay attention to the opportunity of buying on dips for the 01 contract [1].