Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Core Views of the Report - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell mentioned balancing inflation concerns with a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth were all lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation [4]. - For assets, the stock index is expected to be short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions. Treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, and cautious observation is recommended. In the commodity sector, black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Macro - Overseas, Fed Chair Powell needs to balance inflation concerns and a weakening job market in future rate decisions; the US dollar index has strengthened significantly, and global risk appetite has cooled. Domestically, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. For assets, the stock index is short - term oscillatory and slightly stronger, with cautious short - term long positions; treasury bonds are short - term oscillatory, with cautious observation; black metals are short - term oscillatory, with cautious short - term observation; non - ferrous metals have risen significantly in the short term, with cautious short - term long positions; energy and chemicals are short - term oscillatory and rebounding, with cautious long positions; precious metals are short - term high and strong oscillatory, with cautious long positions [4]. Stock Index - Driven by sectors such as semiconductors, energy metals, and batteries, the domestic stock market has risen significantly. Fundamentally, China's August consumption, January - August investment, and industrial added - value growth are lower than previous values and market expectations, with domestic demand continuing to slow. The central bank adheres to a self - centered and balanced monetary policy, and the Shanghai Stock Exchange aims to drive long - term funds into the market. The short - term domestic policy support has increased, and domestic risk appetite has risen sharply. The market is currently focused on domestic incremental stimulus policies, with short - term macro upward drivers strengthening. Future attention should be paid to Sino - US trade negotiations and domestic incremental policy implementation. Short - term cautious long positions are recommended [5]. Black Metals - Steel: On Wednesday, the domestic steel futures and spot markets rebounded slightly, with low trading volume. The construction industry's stable growth plan has led to rebounds in glass and steel. Fundamentally, real demand continues to weaken, and steel inventories are rising, but the increase has narrowed. Apparent consumption has slightly increased. Supply has also increased, especially in construction steel. There are rumors of production restrictions in Tangshan. The short - term steel market is likely to be range - bound [7]. - Iron Ore: On Wednesday, iron ore futures and spot prices rebounded slightly. Steel mills are replenishing stocks before the National Day, and iron ore production has increased. Supply is high, with a decrease in global shipments and an increase in arrivals this week. Port inventories have also increased slightly. Iron ore prices should be treated with a range - bound mindset, but there is a risk of negative feedback after November [7][8]. Non - ferrous Metals and New Energy - Copper: At around 8 pm last night, copper prices soared due to the shutdown of the world's second - largest copper mine, Grasberg. The mine's annual production is 800,000 tons, and the shutdown affects about one - third, or 270,000 tons. However, Grasberg will resume production in stages and fully recover in 2027, with the actual impact lower than the theoretical value. Copper concentrate spot TC is stable and slightly rising, electrolytic copper production is high, and the impact of recycled copper policy disturbances on production is limited. Future demand faces a marginal decline risk. The upside space is limited due to the slowdown of the US economy [9]. - Aluminum: On Wednesday, aluminum prices stabilized, closing with a small real - body positive line, supported by the 60 - day moving average. After the Fed's interest rate cut, non - ferrous metals have returned to fundamental trading, with different trends among varieties. Currently, the fundamentals of aluminum are weak [9]. - Silicon Manganese/Silicon Iron: On Wednesday, the spot prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese were flat, and the futures prices rebounded slightly. Manganese ore trading has slowed down. The start - up rate of silicon manganese enterprises has decreased, and daily production has also decreased. Steel mills' profits are around the cost line, and the September procurement is mostly completed. With the approaching of the National Day and the October tender, downstream demand is expected to improve. The Lanthanum market sentiment has improved. The futures prices of silicon iron and silicon manganese are expected to continue to be range - bound [9]. - Soda Ash: On Wednesday, the main soda ash contract was strong. Affected by the downstream glass sector, soda ash prices have strengthened. Last week, supply decreased slightly due to some device overhauls, but overall supply is still sufficient. Demand is stable week - on - week, with some improvement in the peak season, but terminal demand support has not changed significantly, and the demand increase space is limited. Currently, soda ash has a pattern of high supply, high inventory, and weak demand. In the short term, with the peak season and upstream overhauls decreasing, supply and demand will both increase, but in the long term, supply - side contradictions will suppress prices [9]. - Glass: On Wednesday, the main glass contract was strong. On September 24, the "Building Materials Industry Stable Growth Work Plan (2025 - 2026)" was officially announced, combined with the traditional peak season, leading to a rise in glass prices. Last week, glass production was stable, and downstream deep - processing factory orders increased slightly. Overall, glass supply is stable, demand has marginally improved, and with positive policy sentiment, it is expected to be short - term strong [9]. - Aluminum Alloy: Currently, the supply of scrap aluminum is tight, and recycled aluminum factories are short of raw materials, with rising production costs. It is still the off - season, with weak manufacturing orders and poor demand. Considering cost support, the short - term price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly stronger, but the upside space is limited due to weak demand [10]. - Tin: On the supply side, the combined start - up rate of Yunnan and Jiangxi has remained low, reaching 29.92%, slightly rising from last week, mainly due to some smelting enterprise overhauls in Yunnan and tight ore supply. However, the impact is expected to be short - term, and the start - up rate will rise after the overhauls end. With the issuance of mining licenses, the ore supply will become looser, and a large amount of Burmese tin ore will be produced after November. On the demand side, terminal demand is still weak, with weak demand in traditional industries such as consumer electronics and home appliances, and weakening new photovoltaic installations in the past two months. Due to supply tightening, tin price declines have led to some downstream and terminal enterprises replenishing stocks and making rigid purchases, with inventory decreasing by 936 tons to 8,453 tons. Overall, the price is expected to be short - term oscillatory, with overhaul and peak - season expectations supporting the price, but the upside space will be under pressure [10]. - Lithium Carbonate: On Wednesday, the main lithium carbonate 2511 contract fell 0.79%, with a new settlement price of 73,360 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract added 10,199 lots, with a total position of 714,600 lots. The steel union quotes battery - grade lithium carbonate at 73,250 yuan/ton (flat). The latest CIF price of Australian lithium spodumene is 827.5 US dollars/ton (down 5 US dollars). The production profit of purchased lithium spodumene is - 2,519 yuan/ton. Currently, the supply and demand of lithium carbonate are both increasing, with strong peak - season demand, a slight reduction in social inventory, and the transfer of smelter inventory to downstream. The fundamentals are marginally improving, with limited downside space. The market is expected to be oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the upper pressure range [11]. - Industrial Silicon: On Wednesday, the main industrial silicon 2511 contract rose 0.84%, with a new settlement price of 8,990 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 508,300 lots, with a reduction of 1,424 lots. The price of East China oxygen - containing 553 is 9,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the futures are at a discount of 480 yuan/ton. The price difference between East China 421 and East China oxygen - containing 553 is 200 yuan/ton. There is no obvious positive factor for industrial silicon, and the market is expected to be range - bound [11]. - Polysilicon: On Wednesday, the main polysilicon 2511 contract rose 2.41%, with a new settlement price of 50,910 yuan/ton, and the weighted contract position was 250,400 lots, with a reduction of 2,089 lots. The latest price of N - type re -投料 is 51,500 yuan/ton (flat), and the price of P - type cauliflower material is 30,500 yuan/ton (flat). The price of N - type silicon wafers is 1.35 yuan/piece (flat), the price of single - crystal Topcon battery cells (M10) is 0.315 yuan/watt (flat), and the price of N - type components (centralized) is 0.66 yuan/watt (flat). The number of polysilicon warehouse receipts is 7,850 lots (down 20 lots). Recently, the spot prices of polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have increased, and there is still a strong policy expectation. The short - term is expected to be high and oscillatory, and attention should be paid to the spot price support [11]. Energy and Chemicals - Crude Oil: The US's tough stance on Russia has pushed up oil prices. Trump's remarks have raised concerns about supply disruptions. Russia is considering diesel export restrictions, and CTA short positions are being closed. Oil prices will be supported in the near term and remain oscillatory [12][13]. - Asphalt: The rebound of oil prices has driven up asphalt prices. However, the peak - season demand is over, and there is still excess pressure. The short - term basis is slightly decreasing, and inventory de - stocking is limited. In the future, oil prices may be affected by OPEC+ production increases, and attention should be paid to the follow - up increase of asphalt prices [13]. - PX: The main contract continues to oscillate with the polyester sector, with support from crude oil costs. The previous small positive factors from low device start - up and increased overhaul plans have been priced in. The PXN spread has decreased slightly to 205 US dollars, and the PX foreign market has fallen to 812 US dollars. PTA short - term processing fees are being squeezed. PX is still in a tight situation, but with the recent decline of the polyester sector, it may remain weakly oscillatory with some support below [13]. - PP: The market price is weakly oscillatory. The two - oil polyolefin inventory has decreased. Device overhauls have led to a short - term decrease in production, and downstream start - up and orders have improved, with raw material inventory rising and peak - season stocking starting. However, seasonal supply increases and new capacity releases have kept the supply loose, and the excess pattern remains unchanged. The short - term is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak, and attention should be paid to peak - season demand improvement [14][15]. - PTA: The stimulus from PTA production cut rumors has ended, and there is no substantial news. Downstream start - up has fallen, terminal orders are average, and peak - season demand has disappointed. Downstream inventory has increased, and the PTA trading basis has been falling. However, the impact of low processing fees is gradually emerging, with more device overhauls planned. There is still some support at the previous low. In the short term, with a large increase in short positions and no major fluctuations in oil prices, the futures price is under downward pressure [14]. - Ethylene Glycol: The price of ethylene glycol remains low and oscillatory, with stable port inventory. The expected start - up of Yulong has strengthened. Downstream demand is weak, and after the peak season, trading is still light, with the basis not significantly improved. If downstream inventory continues to accumulate, there is no obvious upward driver for ethylene glycol prices, and it will continue to be oscillatory [14]. - Short - fiber: Short - fiber has adjusted with the polyester sector, and the price has slightly decreased. Terminal orders have seasonally increased but with limited amplitude. Short - fiber start - up has rebounded, leading to limited inventory accumulation. Further inventory de - stocking depends on the continuous improvement of terminal orders and start - up. Currently, the upside space is limited, and short - fiber is expected to follow the polyester sector and can be shorted on rallies in the medium term [14]. - Methanol: The price of methanol in Taicang is weakly oscillatory, and the basis is weakening. In the short term, domestic and imported supply has slightly decreased, and the restart of port MTO has prevented inventory from rising. The continuous weakness of the port has pressured prices, and some inland arbitrage windows have opened, but the supply - excess pattern cannot be changed in the short term, and high inventory still suppresses prices. In the long term, the recent malfunction and overhaul of Iranian devices have led to speculation about early gas restrictions, and October imports may be the key to the supply - demand change of methanol. Long positions can be considered in the long term [14]. - LLDPE: The LLDPE market is priced at 7,080 - 7,600 yuan/ton, with price adjustments in different regions. Device restarts have increased supply, and the start - up of the agricultural film industry has been slow, with order growth slower than in previous years. However, the inventory is relatively low, and the stability of oil prices under geopolitical and Fed interest - rate cut backgrounds provides some support. Currently, the return of supply and lower - than - expected peak - season demand make the overall supply - demand situation pessimistic, and the price is expected to be oscillatory and slightly weak [15]. - Urea: The domestic urea market is stable. Currently, the urea fundamentals show a pattern of "strong supply, weak demand, and differentiated inventory." Supply is increasing as previously overhauled devices resume production, and the daily output is expected to return to 200,000 tons. Agricultural demand during the autumn fertilizer - stocking period from late September to early October may bring some short - term sales, but the overall impact on the market is limited. Industrial demand is still low, with the compound fertilizer industry's capacity utilization rate at only 38.63% as of September 18. Inventory shows a differentiated pattern, with enterprise inventory increasing by 2.88% to 1.1653 million tons, indicating that domestic demand is lower than supply, and port inventory decreasing by 6.08% to 516,000 tons due to approaching export windows. Overall, the urea market has sufficient supply and weak demand support, with enterprise inventory accumulation indicating a loose fundamental situation and significant short - term pressure [16].
研究所晨会观点精萃-20250925
Dong Hai Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:30