Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for methanol in the energy and chemical sector is "oscillation" [1] Group 2: Core View of the Report - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season. This week, port inventories are being reduced from high levels, and inland inventories continue to decline. With the restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO unit and limited impact from the short - term shutdown of Iranian units last week, the short - term methanol price will oscillate within a range, and the downside space is narrowing, with a reference range of 2320 - 2420 [1] Group 3: Summary by Related Catalog Market Review - On Wednesday night, the futures price of the methanol main contract rose 3 yuan to 2358 yuan/ton, and the spot price of methanol in the mainstream East China region rose 15 yuan to 2255 yuan/ton. Long positions decreased by 13888 lots to 554800 lots, and short positions decreased by 23433 lots to 669400 lots [1] Important Information - Supply: The domestic methanol operating rate is 79.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 5.5%. The overseas methanol operating rate is 67.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 4.2% [1] - Inventory: The total inventory of Chinese methanol ports is 1492200 tons, a decrease of 65600 tons. The inventory in East China decreased by 41200 tons, and the inventory in South China decreased by 24400 tons. The inventory of Chinese methanol sample production enterprises is 319900 tons, a decrease of 20500 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 6.03% [1] - Demand: The signing volume of northwest methanol enterprises is 76800 tons, a month - on - month increase of 30900 tons. The pending orders of sample enterprises are 273000 tons, an increase of 39200 tons compared with the previous period, a month - on - month increase of 16.79%. The olefin operating rate is 84.8%, a month - on - month increase of 2.2%; the dimethyl ether operating rate is 6.2%, a month - on - month increase of 1.4%; the methyl chloride operating rate is 86.4%, a month - on - month increase of 0.7%; the acetic acid operating rate is 82.4%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.7%; the formaldehyde operating rate is 42.9%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.2%; the MTBE operating rate is 63.5%, a month - on - month increase of 1.8% [1] - The OECD released a mid - term economic outlook report on the 23rd, predicting that the global economic growth rate in 2025 will be 3.2%, an upward adjustment of 0.3 percentage points compared with the forecast in June this year; the global economic growth rate in 2026 will slow down to 2.9%, the same as the June forecast [1] Market Logic - Methanol downstream shows a lackluster peak season. This week, port inventories are being reduced from high levels, and inland inventories continue to decline. The import volume in August is 1.7598 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 59%. The restart of the Zhejiang Xingxing MTO unit is a positive factor, and the short - term shutdown of Iranian units last week has limited impact. The short - term methanol price will oscillate within a range, and the downside space is narrowing, with a reference range of 2320 - 2420 [1] Trading Strategy - Short - term operation [1]
格林大华期货早盘提示：甲醇-20250925
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:34