Report Summary 1. Overnight Night Market Trends - International precious metal futures generally closed lower, with COMEX gold futures down 1.24% at $3,768.5 per ounce and COMEX silver futures down 1.11% at $44.115 per ounce [3]. - U.S. EIA crude oil inventories unexpectedly decreased by 607,000 barrels. WTI crude oil futures rose 2.21% to $64.81 per barrel, and Brent crude oil futures rose 2.02% to $68.32 per barrel [4]. - London base metals all rose, with LME copper up 3.46% at $10,320 per ton, LME zinc up 1.18% at $2,922.5 per ton, LME aluminum up 0.63% at $2,654.5 per ton, and LME nickel up 0.53% at $15,435 per ton [4]. - As of 2:20, U.S. soybeans fell 0.35%, U.S. corn fell 0.53%, U.S. soybean oil fell 0.22%, U.S. soybean meal fell 0.50%, and U.S. wheat fell 0.19% [5]. - As of 23:00, most domestic futures contracts closed higher. Soybean No. 2, palm oil, soybean meal, low-sulfur fuel oil (LU), and fuel oil rose more than 1%, while cotton fell slightly [5]. 2. Important News Macroeconomic News - The People's Bank of China will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, 2025 [8]. - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of certain futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [8]. - The Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development announced that 25,000 old urban residential areas are planned to be renovated in 2025, and 21,700 have been started from January to August [8]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent expressed disappointment that Fed Chair Powell did not set a clear agenda for interest rate cuts and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year [8]. - The U.S. officially lowered tariffs on EU cars, effective August 1, 2025 [8]. - Fed's Daly fully supports the 25 - basis - point rate cut last week and said further policy adjustments may be needed [9]. Energy and Chemical Futures - Multiple departments issued the "Work Plan for Stable Growth in the Building Materials Industry (2025 - 2026)", aiming to control cement and glass production capacity [12]. - As of the week of September 24, the capacity utilization rate of 92 asphalt refineries in China was 42.0%, up 5.7% week - on - week, and the weekly output was 701,000 tons, up 15.5% [12]. - As of September 24, 2025, China's methanol port inventory decreased by 65,600 tons to 1.4922 million tons [12]. - As of the week of September 22, the total refined oil inventory at the Fujairah Port in the UAE increased by 1.833 million barrels to 14.922 million barrels [12]. - U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 607,000 barrels to 415 million barrels in the week ending September 19, 2025, while strategic petroleum reserve inventories increased by 230,000 barrels to 406 million barrels [13]. - Eight international oil companies in the Kurdistan region of Iraq reached a preliminary agreement to resume oil exports [13]. Metal Futures - Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started annual maintenance on its first - phase polysilicon production line, and the third - phase project is ready for maintenance [16]. - The Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of copper, aluminum, zinc, lead, gold, and silver futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [16]. - The Antamina copper mine in Peru expects zinc production to increase by 67% this year, offsetting a 12% decline in copper production [16]. - From January to July 2025, the global copper market had a surplus of 101,000 tons, compared with a surplus of 401,000 tons in the same period last year [17]. - An accident at the Grasberg Block Cave mine in Indonesia led to the suspension of operations, and the company lowered its copper and gold sales forecasts for the third quarter [17]. Black - Series Futures - In mid - September, the daily output of crude steel by key steel enterprises decreased by 0.6% month - on - month, while the daily output of iron and steel products increased [20]. - Beibu Gulf Port in Guangxi suspended manganese ore pick - up due to a typhoon, with limited impact on inventory [20]. - On September 24, the auction price of coking coal in Linfen market rose significantly, with an average increase of about 92 yuan per ton [20]. - Dalian Commodity Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of iron ore, coke, and coking coal futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [21]. Agricultural Product Futures - The EU postponed the implementation of anti - deforestation regulations, providing a respite for palm oil exporters [23]. - As of September 20, the inventory of sugar in third - party warehouses in Guangxi decreased by about 300,000 tons compared with August [23]. - In August 2025, China's industrial feed output was 29.36 million tons, up 3.7% month - on - month and 3.8% year - on - year [25]. - Indonesia's palm oil exports in July were 3.54 million tons, with a production of 5.11 million tons and an inventory of 2.57 million tons [26]. - The CNF price of Argentine soybeans imported into China decreased, and the cost of imported soybeans declined [26]. - A senior analyst predicted that Malaysian BMD crude palm oil futures may rise 27% in the first quarter of next year [26]. - The average pig - to - grain ratio in Guangdong Province entered the second - level early - warning range of excessive decline, and the province will conduct frozen pork reserve purchases [26]. - Brazil's ANEC lowered its September soybean export forecast to 7.15 million tons and raised its corn export forecast to 7.61 million tons [27]. 3. Financial Markets Stocks - A - shares rose, with the ChiNext Index and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index hitting new highs. The semiconductor industry chain was strong, while AI hardware and the banking sector declined. The Shanghai Composite Index rose 0.83%, the Shenzhen Component Index rose 1.8%, the ChiNext Index rose 2.28%, and the Sci - Tech Innovation 50 Index rose 3.49%. The total trading volume was 2.35 trillion yuan [30]. - The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index rose 1.37%, the Hang Seng Tech Index rose 2.53%, and the Hang Seng China Enterprises Index rose 1.64%. Southbound funds had a net purchase of HK$13.7 billion [30]. - Chery Automobile's H - shares were listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a final offer price of HK$30.75 per share [31]. - Mercedes - Benz plans to acquire a minority stake in A - share listed Qianli Technology [32]. Industries - Six departments issued a work plan for stable growth in the building materials industry, aiming for green building materials revenue to exceed 300 billion yuan by 2026 [33]. - The State Administration for Market Regulation solicited opinions on a new standard for food delivery platform services [35]. - The National Press and Publication Administration approved 145 domestic and 11 imported game licenses in September [35]. - The transportation department issued a plan to promote the integrated development of container rail - water intermodal transport, aiming for a 15% annual growth in volume by 2027 [35]. - From January to August, China's railway passenger volume increased by 6.7% year - on - year, freight volume increased by 2.6%, and fixed - asset investment increased by 5.6% [35]. - The "Blue Book on the Development of the Beidou Industry (2025)" showed that the total output value of China's satellite navigation and location - based services industry reached 575.8 billion yuan in 2024, and the number of new Beidou - supported terminals is expected to exceed 400 million by the end of 2028 [36]. Overseas Markets - The U.S. and the EU finalized a tariff agreement, with the U.S. lowering tariffs on EU cars and the EU getting tariff exemptions for certain products [37]. - U.S. Treasury Secretary Besent criticized Fed Chair Powell for not setting a clear interest - rate - cut agenda and called for a 100 - 150 basis point cut by the end of the year. The Treasury is considering a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina [37]. - The U.S. government is negotiating to restructure a $2.3 billion energy department loan to Lithium Americas through equity investment [39]. - U.S. new home sales in August reached an annualized rate of 800,000 units, far exceeding expectations, and the inventory of new homes for sale decreased [39]. - Bank of England Governor Bailey said there is room for interest rate cuts, depending on inflation [40]. - Australia's CPI in August rose 3% year - on - year, reaching the upper limit of the RBA's inflation target range [40]. - Germany's September IFO business expectations and sentiment indices declined [41]. International Stock Markets - U.S. stocks fell slightly, with the Dow down 0.37%, the S&P 500 down 0.28%, and the Nasdaq down 0.33%. Chinese concept stocks generally rose [42]. - European stocks closed mixed, with the German DAX Index rising 0.23%, the French CAC40 Index falling 0.57%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index rising 0.29% [42]. - Saudi Arabia is considering relaxing foreign ownership restrictions on listed companies, leading to a 5% rise in the Saudi All - Share Index [44]. - The Japanese Nikkei 225 Index rose 0.3% to a new high, while the South Korean KOSPI Index fell 0.45% after hitting a new high [44]. - South Korean securities companies may resume U.S. stock trading services in early November [44]. Commodities - Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange and Shanghai Futures Exchange will adjust the trading margin and price limit of multiple futures contracts from September 29, 2025 [45]. - International precious metal futures fell, international oil prices rose, London base metals rose, and global steel production in August increased slightly year - on - year [45][46][47]. Bonds - Yields of major interest - rate bonds in the inter - bank market generally rose, and bond prices fell. The central bank conducted 401.5 billion yuan of 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 1.7 billion yuan [48]. - Commercial banks can use certain bonds as collateral for treasury cash time deposits [48]. - The issuance scale of local government bonds from January to August reached 7.68 trillion yuan, a 41.9% year - on - year increase [48]. - U.S. Treasury yields rose, and the issuance of UK government bonds faced weak demand [48][50]. Foreign Exchange - The on - shore RMB against the U.S. dollar closed down 86 basis points at 7.1219, and the U.S. dollar index rose 0.65% [51]. 4. Upcoming Data Releases and Events Data Releases - A series of economic data from Germany, France, the UK, the U.S., and China Hong Kong will be released on September 25 [53]. Events - Multiple central bank meetings, policy announcements, corporate events, and international meetings are scheduled for September 25 [55].
冠通期货资讯早间报-20250925
Guan Tong Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:41