Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, with funds switching between high - and low - level stocks and rapid rotation. Short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, the policy supports the capital market, so the idea is to go long on dips [4]. - In the bond market, considering the weak repair of domestic demand and the expected loose funds, interest rates are expected to decline, but in the short - term, it may be in a volatile pattern due to the stock - bond seesaw effect [6]. - For precious metals, as the Fed's key figures still have a dovish monetary policy stance after the September interest - rate meeting, it is recommended to go long on dips [8]. - In the black sector, there is a short - term risk of downward correction, especially after the National Day holiday, but in the future, it may gradually have the cost - performance for long - term allocation, and the key time point may be around the "Fourth Plenary Session" in mid - October [37]. Summaries by Catalog Macro - financial Stock Index - Market Information: It is expected that China's annual automobile sales will reach 40 million units during the "15th Five - Year Plan" period; six departments prohibit the addition of cement clinker and flat glass production capacity; Alibaba will cooperate with NVIDIA in Physical AI and plans to increase investment in AI infrastructure; the chip mania triggered by AI has spread to the storage chip field [2]. - Strategy View: After a continuous rise, high - level hot sectors like AI have shown divergence, and short - term index faces uncertainty, but in the long - term, it is advisable to go long on dips [4]. Treasury Bond - Market Information: On Wednesday, the main contracts of TL, T, TF, and TS all declined. The central bank will conduct a 600 - billion - yuan MLF operation, and the winning yields of the Ministry of Finance's 2 - period treasury bonds are lower than the valuation. The central bank conducted a 401.5 - billion - yuan 7 - day reverse repurchase operation, with a net withdrawal of 17 billion yuan [5]. - Strategy View: The economic data in August continued to slow down. Although the central bank maintains a loose attitude towards funds, the bond market may be volatile in the short - term, and interest rates are expected to decline in the long - term [6]. Precious Metals - Market Information: Domestic and foreign gold and silver prices showed different trends. The US real estate data was strong, putting short - term pressure on precious metals, but the Fed's key figures had a dovish stance [7]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to go long on dips for precious metals, with reference operating ranges for Shanghai gold and silver given [8]. Non - ferrous Metals Copper - Market Information: On Wednesday, LME copper rose significantly, and the supply - side disturbances stimulated the price. LME copper inventory decreased, and domestic copper inventory also changed [10]. - Strategy View: Although the Fed's attitude is relatively hawkish in the short - term, if the interest - rate cut process advances, the market sentiment may not be significantly suppressed. Copper prices are expected to be strong in the short - term [11]. Aluminum - Market Information: On Wednesday, LME aluminum rebounded, and the increase in copper prices drove the sentiment in the aluminum market. Domestic and foreign aluminum inventories changed, and the downstream procurement sentiment improved [12]. - Strategy View: Although the Fed's statement is not as dovish as expected, the aluminum price has strong support below and may rise in the short - term [13]. Zinc - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index rose slightly. The domestic and foreign zinc inventories changed, and the import profit and loss of zinc ingots were negative [14][15]. - Strategy View: The zinc ore surplus has eased, and the Fed's monetary policy has cooled the sentiment in the non - ferrous metal sector. The Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak in the short - term [15]. Lead - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index fell slightly. The domestic and foreign lead inventories decreased, and the price difference between refined and scrap lead was 75 yuan/ton [16]. - Strategy View: The raw material shortage restricts the production of primary lead, while the profit of recycled lead has improved. The domestic lead ingot inventory has decreased, and the Shanghai lead is expected to be strong in the short - term [16]. Nickel - Market Information: On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated. The nickel ore and nickel iron prices were stable, and the price of MHP increased slightly [17]. - Strategy View: In the short - term, the high inventory of refined nickel may drag down the nickel price, but in the long - term, it is recommended to go long on dips, and the operating ranges for Shanghai nickel and LME nickel are given [17]. Tin - Market Information: On September 24, the Shanghai tin main contract rose. The supply of tin ore was tight, and the downstream demand was in the peak season [18]. - Strategy View: The short - term supply and demand of tin are in a tight balance, and the tin price is expected to be volatile. It is recommended to wait and see [18]. Carbonate Lithium - Market Information: On Wednesday, the carbonate lithium continued to fluctuate. The price of the LC2511 contract decreased, and the spot price was stable [19]. - Strategy View: The current strong demand supports the bottom, but the supply recovery expectation suppresses the upside. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply, demand, and market sentiment [19]. Alumina - Market Information: On September 24, the alumina index rose. The domestic and foreign prices and inventories changed, and the import window opened [20]. - Strategy View: The ore price has short - term support, but the alumina production capacity is in excess. It is recommended to wait and see, and the operating range for the domestic main contract is given [21][22]. Stainless Steel - Market Information: On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract rose slightly. The spot price was stable, and the inventory decreased [23]. - Strategy View: The domestic leading steel mills have a strong willingness to support prices, but the consumption has not improved significantly. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term [24]. Cast Aluminum Alloy - Market Information: As of Wednesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rebounded. The inventory increased, and the downstream procurement was mainly for rigid demand [25]. - Strategy View: The downstream of cast aluminum alloy is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the price is under pressure due to the delivery pressure, and the support comes from the cost of scrap aluminum [26]. Black Building Materials Steel - Market Information: The prices of rebar and hot - rolled coil futures rose. The inventory of rebar decreased, while that of hot - rolled coil increased slightly [28]. - Strategy View: The commodity market was in a good mood, but the demand for steel was weak. If the demand cannot be effectively repaired, steel prices may decline. It is necessary to pay attention to the policy trends of the "Fourth Plenary Session" [29]. Iron Ore - Market Information: The iron - ore main contract rose slightly. The overseas iron - ore shipment decreased, the iron - water output increased, and the port inventory decreased slightly [30][31]. - Strategy View: In the short - term, the iron - water output is still strong, and the iron - ore price is expected to be volatile. It is necessary to observe the downstream demand recovery and inventory reduction speed [31]. Glass and Soda Ash - Glass - Market Information: The glass main contract rose significantly. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short increased and decreased respectively [32]. - Strategy View: The policy and price increase of some enterprises pushed up the glass price, but the terminal demand was weak. It is recommended to pay attention to the policy and be bullish in the short - term [33]. - Soda Ash - Market Information: The soda - ash main contract rose. The inventory decreased, and the positions of long and short changed [34]. - Strategy View: The domestic soda - ash market is stable, the production is expected to increase slightly, and the demand is flat. It is expected to be in a volatile pattern in the short - term [34]. Manganese Silicon and Ferrosilicon - Market Information: On September 24, the main contracts of manganese silicon and ferrosilicon rebounded. The spot prices were stable, and the price differences changed [35]. - Strategy View: The black sector may have a short - term downward correction risk, but in the long - term, it may be suitable for long - term allocation. Manganese silicon and ferrosilicon are likely to follow the black - sector market [36][37]. Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon - Industrial Silicon - Market Information: The industrial - silicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price was stable [38]. - Strategy View: The supply and demand of industrial silicon have not changed significantly. It is recommended to pay attention to the supply - demand improvement and policy changes [39][40]. - Polysilicon - Market Information: The polysilicon main contract rose. The weighted contract positions decreased, and the spot price changed slightly [41]. - Strategy View: The polysilicon price is affected by policies and fundamentals. It is expected to be volatile in the short - term, and there is a risk of decline if expectations are not met [42]. Energy - Chemical Rubber - Market Information: Typhoon "Hagasa" is a positive factor, while the EU's delay in implementing anti - deforestation laws reduces positive factors. The operating rates of tire enterprises and the inventory of natural rubber changed [44][46]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to have a long - term bullish view and a short - term neutral or slightly bullish view, and go long on dips with quick entry and exit [48]. Crude Oil - Market Information: The INE main crude - oil futures and related refined - oil futures rose. The gasoline inventory in Singapore increased, while the diesel, fuel - oil, and total refined - oil inventories decreased [49]. - Strategy View: It is recommended to be long on crude oil, as the current price is undervalued, and if the geopolitical premium reappears, the oil price may rise [50]. Methanol - Market Information: The prices of methanol in different regions and the main contract changed. The 1 - 5 price difference was in a low - level shock [51]. - Strategy View: The supply of methanol decreased, and the demand improved marginally, but the high inventory still suppresses the price. It is recommended to wait and see [52][53]. Urea - Market Information: The spot price of urea in Shandong was stable, while that in Henan decreased. The main contract price and price differences changed [54]. - Strategy View: The supply of urea increased, and the demand was weak. The urea price is expected to have no large - scale unilateral trend. It is recommended to wait and see or go long on dips [54]. Pure Benzene and Styrene - Market Information: The cost, spot, and futures prices of pure benzene and styrene changed. The supply, demand, and inventory also changed [55]. - Strategy View: The BZN price difference is expected to repair, and it is recommended to go long on the pure - benzene US - South Korea price difference on dips [56]. PVC - Market Information: The PVC01 contract rose. The cost was stable, the production and demand changed, and the inventory increased [57]. - Strategy View: The supply of PVC is strong, the demand is weak, and the export expectation is weak. It is recommended to go short on rallies [59]. Ethylene Glycol - Market Information: The EG01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the port inventory increased slightly [60]. - Strategy View: The supply of ethylene glycol is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory in the fourth quarter. It is recommended to go short on rallies, but beware of the risk of unfulfilled weak expectations [61]. PTA - Market Information: The PTA01 contract rose. The supply and demand loads decreased, and the inventory increased slightly [62]. - Strategy View: The supply of PTA has many unexpected maintenance situations, and the demand is under pressure. It is recommended to wait and see [63]. p - Xylene - Market Information: The PX11 contract rose. The load of PX decreased, and the inventory decreased [64]. - Strategy View: The PX load is high, and it is expected to accumulate inventory. It is recommended to wait and see and pay attention to the terminal and PTA valuation recovery [65]. Polyethylene (PE) - Market Information: The PE main contract rose. The upstream operating rate increased, the inventory increased, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [66]. - Strategy View: The PE price is expected to fluctuate upward, as the cost has support, and the demand may improve seasonally [67]. Polypropylene (PP) - Market Information: The PP main contract rose. The upstream operating rate was stable, the inventory decreased in some places and increased in others, and the downstream operating rate increased slightly [68]. - Strategy View: The supply of PP has pressure, and the demand is in a seasonal rebound. The overall inventory pressure is high, and there is no prominent short - term contradiction [70]. Agricultural Products Live Pigs - Market Information: The domestic pig prices showed different trends. The supply of standard pigs is abundant, and the pig prices may be stable or decline today [72]. - Strategy View: The current spot price of pigs may decline slightly, and the futures price may continue to be weak. It is recommended to go short on the near - month contract and do reverse arbitrage [73]. Eggs - Market Information: The national egg prices were mainly stable, with a few adjustments. The supply was stable, and the egg prices may be stable or decline today [74]. - Strategy View: The spot price of eggs is expected to decline, and the near - month futures price is weak. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and pay attention to buying the far - month contract after the price decline [75]. Soybean and Rapeseed Meal - Market Information: The US soybean price decreased slightly, and Argentina temporarily cancelled the export tax, which is negative for the international soybean prices. The domestic soybean meal price decreased slightly, and the inventory changed [76][77]. - Strategy View: The domestic supply of soybean meal has pressure, and the global soybean supply is loose. The soybean meal market is expected to be in a range - bound pattern [78]. Oils and Fats - Market Information: The export and production of Malaysian palm oil changed, and the export, production, and inventory of Indonesian palm oil also changed. The domestic three major oils rebounded [79]. - Strategy View: The oils and fats are expected to be strong in the medium - term, and it is recommended to buy on dips after the price stabilizes [80]. Sugar - Market Information: The Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The spot prices of different regions were stable, and the production of the next crushing season in Brazil, Thailand, and India is expected to increase [81][82]. - Strategy View: The sugar price is expected to decline in the long - term, but it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day [83]. Cotton - Market Information: The Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The spot price decreased, and the inventory and operating rates of the downstream industry changed [84].
文字早评2025/09/25星期四：宏观金融类-20250925
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:38