国泰君安期货商品研究晨报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Core Views - Gold is expected to continue hitting new highs, while silver will experience a sideways adjustment [2][6]. - Copper prices have surged due to force majeure disturbances in copper mines [2][13]. - Zinc is expected to have a slight rebound [2][15]. - Lead prices are supported by decreasing inventories [2][19]. - Tin will trade within a range [2][21]. - Aluminum is expected to be slightly bullish in a sideways trend, alumina will trade within a range, and cast aluminum alloy will outperform electrolytic aluminum [2][27]. - Nickel prices will trade at a low level due to the game between smelting inventory accumulation and ore - end expectations, and stainless - steel prices will oscillate due to the game between short - term supply - demand and costs [2][30]. - The pre - holiday restocking of lithium carbonate is coming to an end, and the sideways trend will continue [2][37]. - For industrial silicon, the futures price is relatively resilient; for polysilicon, pay attention to market sentiment due to upstream sudden maintenance [2][40]. - Iron ore prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][43]. - Rebar and hot - rolled coil prices will have wide - range oscillations [2][45][46]. - Ferrosilicon and silicomanganese prices will have wide - range oscillations due to sector sentiment resonance [2][50]. - Coke and coking coal prices will have wide - range oscillations due to repeated expectations [2][53][54]. - Log prices will oscillate repeatedly [2][56]. - Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60]. Summary by Related Catalogs Precious Metals - Gold: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE gold 2510 was 856.04 with a daily increase of 0.48%, and the night - session closing price was 853.06 with a decrease of 0.65%. The trend strength is 0 [7][10]. - Silver: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE silver 2510 was 10354 with a daily increase of 0.47%, and the night - session closing price was 10349.00 with a decrease of 0.52%. The trend strength is 1 [7][10]. Base Metals - Copper: Yesterday, the closing price of SHFE copper main contract was 79,960 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 82610 with an increase of 3.31%. Free Port announced that its Indonesian Grasberg mine encountered force majeure. The trend strength is 2 [12][14]. - Zinc: The closing price of SHFE zinc main contract was 21860 with a daily increase of 0.07%. The LME zinc inventory decreased by 1375 tons. The trend strength is 0 [15][16]. - Lead: The closing price of SHFE lead main contract was 17065 with a decrease of 0.12%. The SHFE lead futures inventory decreased by 3450 tons. The trend strength is 0 [19]. - Tin: The closing price of SHFE tin main contract was 271,650 with a daily increase of 0.66%, and the night - session closing price was 272,950 with an increase of 0.51%. The trend strength is 0 [22][26]. - Aluminum: The closing price of SHFE aluminum main contract was 20705. The domestic aluminum ingot social inventory was 63.70 million tons. The trend strength of aluminum is 1, alumina is 0, and aluminum alloy is 1 [27][29]. - Nickel and Stainless - steel: The closing price of SHFE nickel main contract was 121,450, and that of stainless - steel main contract was 12,895. The trend strength of nickel and stainless - steel is 0 [30][36]. Energy and Chemicals - Lithium Carbonate: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 72,880. The pre - holiday restocking is coming to an end. The trend strength is 0 [37][39]. - Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon: The closing price of Si2511 was 9,020, and that of PS2511 was 51,380. The trend strength of industrial silicon is 0, and that of polysilicon is 1 [40][42]. - Rebar and Hot - rolled Coil: The closing price of RB2601 was 3,164, and that of HC2601 was 3,357. The trend strength of rebar and hot - rolled coil is 0 [46][49]. - Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese: The closing price of ferrosilicon 2511 was 5742, and that of manganese silicon 2511 was 5900. The trend strength of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese is 0 [51][52]. - Coke and Coking Coal: The closing price of JM2601 was 1224.5, and that of J2601 was 1730. The trend strength of coke and coking coal is 0 [54]. - Log: The closing price of the 2511 contract was 807.5. The trend strength is 0 [57][59]. - Para - xylene, PTA, and MEG: Para - xylene and PTA will have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium term; MEG suggests a 1 - 5 month spread reverse arbitrage [2][60].