国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：能源化工-20250925

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Ratings - No specific industry investment ratings are provided in the report. Group 2: Core Views of the Report - Various commodities in the energy - chemical sector have different trends. For example, some like PX and PTA are expected to have short - term rebounds but remain weak in the medium - term, while others such as rubber are expected to oscillate [4][12][13]. Group 3: Summaries by Commodity PX, PTA, MEG - PX: Short - term rebound following crude oil, but medium - term weakness due to planned PTA factory production cuts and temporary plant shutdowns. Hold short positions and maintain reverse spreads [4][7][12]. - PTA: Short - term rebound with geopolitical conflicts and oil price increase, medium - term weakness. 1 - 5 reverse spreads are recommended. The market is waiting for pre - holiday restocking, but overall demand in the textile and beverage industries is weak [4][10][13]. - MEG: Follows raw material price rebounds. There are planned maintenance projects, but supply pressure remains high. Short positions and reverse spreads are advisable [4][11][13]. Rubber - The rubber market is expected to oscillate. The supply pressure in the domestic and Southeast Asian production areas has increased, and the demand side remains weak [4][15][18]. Synthetic Rubber - Synthetic rubber is expected to oscillate in the short term. The inventory of butadiene in East China ports has increased, and the inventory of domestic cis - polybutadiene sample enterprises has decreased slightly. The overall fundamentals are neutral [4][19][21]. Asphalt - Asphalt is slightly stronger following crude oil. The capacity utilization rate of domestic heavy - traffic asphalt enterprises has increased, and the shipment volume has also changed regionally. The trend strength is 1 [4][23][36]. LLDPE - LLDPE is expected to have a medium - term oscillating market. The short - term commodity sentiment has improved, and the demand has gradually recovered. The supply pressure may be relieved in the short term, and the inventory pressure is not significant [4][37][38]. PP - For PP, short - term demand has improved, but the cost side is still weak. The supply of maintenance has increased recently, and the price elasticity at low levels is low. Before the National Day, the market is rational, and short - selling should be cautious [4][41][42]. Caustic Soda - Caustic soda is suppressed by the current weak situation, but the future expectations are not pessimistic. The 32 - alkali spot in Shandong is under pressure, but the 50 - alkali price has increased, and the inventory pressure has been relieved. The market may oscillate widely due to the intertwined long and short expectations [4][45][47]. Pulp - Pulp is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market is in a sideways consolidation state, with low trading activity. The supply and demand have not changed significantly, and the market lacks clear direction [4][50][52]. Glass - The price of glass raw sheets is stable. The market price has increased steadily, and the trading activity has increased significantly. The policy news has boosted the market, but the market price needs time to follow up [4][54][55]. Methanol - Methanol is expected to oscillate in the short term. The spot price index has decreased slightly, and the port inventory has decreased. The market is regionally and narrowly sorted, and attention should be paid to the import arrival and inventory situation [4][57][59]. Urea - Urea is expected to enter an oscillating pattern before the holiday. The inventory of urea enterprises has increased, and the futures price is expected to oscillate, but the upside speculation space is limited. Attention should be paid to the spot trading and export policy information [4][62][64]. Styrene - Styrene is bearish in the medium term. The macro - sentiment is weak, and the downstream replenishment willingness is not strong. The port inventory may accumulate, and the supply pressure of pure benzene in the fourth quarter is high [4][65][66]. Soda Ash - The spot market of soda ash has little change. The price is stable and oscillating. The production of the device has decreased slightly, and the downstream demand is average. The market lacks driving factors [4][68][70]. LPG and Propylene - LPG: Expected to oscillate in the short term. The futures price has increased slightly, and the inventory and spread data have changed. The PDH and other device operating rates have also changed [4][72][73]. - Propylene: Expected to be weak at high levels in the short term. The relevant futures price, inventory, spread, and device operating rate data have different degrees of change [4][73][77]. PVC - PVC is expected to have a wide - range oscillation. The market price has fluctuated slightly, and the trading atmosphere has weakened. The supply side maintains high - level operation, the demand is weak, and the inventory has continued to accumulate [4][81][82]. Fuel Oil and Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil - Fuel Oil: The strong trend continues, and the price center continues to rebound. The futures and spot prices have increased [4][83]. - Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Passively rises, and the high - and low - sulfur spread in the overseas spot market continues to narrow [4][83]. Container Shipping Index (European Line) - The short - term fluctuations of the container shipping index (European line) are expected to increase. The futures price has increased, and the freight index has decreased. The future shipping capacity has dynamic adjustments [4][85].