Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating There is no information about the industry investment rating in the provided reports. 2) Core View of the Report The report indicates that the pig market is in a high-premium situation. Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3]. 3) Summary According to Relevant Catalogs [Fundamental Tracking] - Price: The Henan spot price is 12,680 yuan/ton, the Sichuan spot price is 12,350 yuan/ton, and the Guangdong spot price is 13,360 yuan/ton. The prices of the futures contracts "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 12,730 yuan/ton, 13,345 yuan/ton, and 12,755 yuan/ton respectively [1]. - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volumes of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are 39,050 lots, 19,377 lots, and 8,294 lots respectively, with changes of - 5,610 lots, - 3,173 lots, and + 475 lots compared to the previous day. The open interests are 90,819 lots, 66,711 lots, and 47,802 lots respectively, with changes of - 2,695 lots, - 144 lots, and + 443 lots compared to the previous day [1]. - Spread: The basis of "pig2511", "pig2601", and "pig2603" are - 50 yuan/ton, - 665 yuan/ton, and - 75 yuan/ton respectively. The spread between "pig11 - 1" is - 615 yuan/ton, and the spread between "pig1 - 3" is 590 yuan/ton [1]. [Trend Intensity] The trend intensity is - 1, indicating a bearish view. The range of trend intensity is an integer within the [- 2,2] interval, where - 2 represents the most bearish and 2 represents the most bullish [2]. [Market Logic] Group companies have significantly reduced their supply, but the average weight of pigs has increased again, and the price difference between fat and lean pigs has weakened, indicating a serious passive inventory accumulation. The overall supply in September has increased significantly, and there is a resonance between the production capacity cycle and the inventory cycle from September to October. The probability of concentrated release of spot pressure before the double festivals has increased, and the spot price center will further decline. The near - month contracts are facing a situation of high production capacity, high inventory, and high premium, and the weakness is difficult to reverse. The purchasing sentiment for piglets has declined, and the price decline has accelerated, corresponding to a decrease in the cost of pigs to be slaughtered from March to May. Attention should be paid to the downward - driving force of the price center in March and May. The July contract is supported by policy regulation, and the spread structure maintains a reverse spread. Traders should pay attention to stop - profit and stop - loss. The short - term support level for the LH2511 contract is 12,000 yuan/ton, and the pressure level is 13,000 yuan/ton [3].
生猪：高升水格局，等待节前备货印证
Guo Tai Jun An Qi Huo·2025-09-25 01:48