宝城期货铁矿石早报（2025年9月25日）-20250925

Report Summary 1) Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2) Core View of the Report The iron ore market shows limited improvement in fundamentals, and the high - valued ore price has weak upward drivers. The price is expected to continue high - level oscillations before the holiday, and attention should be paid to the change in positions [1][2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs Variety View Reference - For the iron ore 2601 contract, the short - term and medium - term trends are expected to be oscillatory, while the intraday trend is expected to be weakly oscillatory. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at the MA10 line. The core logic is the limited improvement in fundamentals and high - level oscillations of ore prices [1]. Market Driving Logic - The supply and demand sides of iron ore have changed. Steel mill production is stable, terminal consumption remains high, and ore demand is fair, which supports the ore price. However, contradictions in the downstream steel market are accumulating, restocking is nearing completion, and the positive effect of demand is weak. - Domestic port arrivals have risen as expected, miner shipments have declined from the high level, overseas supply is relatively high, and domestic mine supply has recovered, increasing the supply pressure. - Overall, ore demand is fair but expected to weaken, supply is rising, and the supply - demand pattern is expected to deteriorate, resulting in weak upward drivers for high - valued ore prices [2].