新世纪期货交易提示（2025-9-25）-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Iron ore: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Coking coal and coke: Oscillating with a bullish bias [2] - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: Oscillating [2] - Glass: Rebounding [2] - Soda ash: Adjusting [2] - CSI 500: Rebounding [3] - CSI 1000: Rebounding [3] - 10-year Treasury bonds: Rebounding [3] - Gold: Bullish [3] - Silver: Bullish [3] - Logs: Range-bound [4] - Pulp: Consolidating at the bottom [4] - Offset paper: Bearish [4] - Edible oils: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Meal: Oscillating with a bearish bias [4] - Live pigs: Oscillating with a bullish bias [6] - Rubber: Oscillating [9] - PX: Hold for observation [9] - PTA: Oscillating [9] - MEG: Hold for observation [9] - PR: Hold for observation [9] - PF: Bullish [9] Core Viewpoints - The trading focus after the National Day will gradually shift to the reality. The fundamentals of various commodities have different characteristics, and their prices will show different trends under the influence of supply, demand, cost, and other factors [2]. - In the financial market, the stock index and bond market are affected by policies and economic data, showing a volatile trend. The price of precious metals is driven by factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies [3]. Summary by Related Catalogs Black Industry - Iron ore: Overseas supply has declined slightly, but the arrival volume at 47 ports has increased. The demand has rebounded, and the steel mills' profit ratio has declined. The short-term fundamentals have limited contradictions, and the contract is undergoing a high-level adjustment [2]. - Coking coal and coke: The coal mine shutdown news and the "anti-involution" expectation have promoted the rebound of the double-coke futures. The supply of coking coal is expected to be weaker than last year, and the demand has rebounded. The double-coke shows an oscillating and bullish trend [2]. - Rebar and hot-rolled coils: The production of finished products has declined slightly, the supply remains relatively high, the apparent demand has increased slightly, and the inventory pressure has continued to increase. The total demand is difficult to show a counter-seasonal performance, and the price is oscillating [2]. - Glass: The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has called on the industry to raise prices, and the short-term price increase may drive downstream restocking. The supply is stable, the demand has improved slightly, and the price is oscillating and bullish before the festival [2]. - Soda ash: The price is adjusting, and the long-term real estate industry is still in an adjustment cycle [2]. Financial Sector - Stock index futures/options: The market is oscillating. The State Council Premier's speech and the Ministry of Commerce's statement have an impact on the market. It is recommended to control risk preferences and maintain the current position of long stock index [3]. - Treasury bonds: The market interest rate is fluctuating, and the bond trend is weak. It is recommended to hold long positions in treasury bonds lightly [3]. - Precious metals: The pricing mechanism of gold is changing, and factors such as central bank buying, geopolitical risks, and interest rate policies drive the price. The price of gold and silver is expected to remain bullish [3]. Light Industry - Logs: The daily average shipment volume has decreased, the supply is tight, the cost support has weakened, and the price is expected to range-bound [4]. - Pulp: The spot price is stable, the cost support has increased, the demand improvement expectation remains to be verified, and the price is expected to consolidate at the bottom [4]. - Offset paper: The production is relatively stable, the demand is in the off-season, the supply-demand contradiction is prominent, and the price is bearish [4]. Oil and Fat Sector - Edible oils: The production of Malaysian palm oil has increased, the inventory has increased, the export is weak, the demand for soybean oil is uncertain, and the supply of domestic oils is abundant. The price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. - Meal: The yield of US soybeans has increased, the export demand is weak, the domestic supply pressure is significant, and the price is expected to oscillate with a bearish bias [4]. Agricultural Products - Live pigs: The average trading weight has increased, the supply is abundant, the demand is weak, the price is oscillating and bullish in the short term, and the slaughter rate is expected to decline and then stabilize [6]. Soft Commodities - Rubber: The supply pressure has decreased, the demand has improved, the inventory has declined, and the price is expected to oscillate widely [9]. - PX: There are potential supply risks, the supply-demand margin has improved slightly, and the price follows the oil price [9]. - PTA: The cost provides support, the supply and demand have both increased, and the price follows the cost [9]. - MEG: The port inventory has increased slightly, the supply pressure has increased, and the price is affected by the cost [9]. - PR: The cost has increased, the supply has decreased, and the market trading atmosphere may be limited [9]. - PF: The factory inventory is not high, the international oil price has risen, and the market is expected to be bullish [9].