国泰君安期货商品研究晨报：黑色系列-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the content Core Views - The report analyzes the futures trends of various commodities in the black series on September 25, 2025, including iron ore, rebar, hot-rolled coil, ferrosilicon, silicomanganese, coke, coking coal, and logs. Most commodities are expected to experience wide - range fluctuations or repeated oscillations, and all have a neutral trend intensity of 0 [2][4][6][7][11][15][17]. Summary by Commodity Iron Ore - Market Trend: Expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][4]. - Fundamental Data: The futures price of contract 12601 was 803.5 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.12%. The trading volume decreased by 7,511 hands. Spot prices remained unchanged. The basis for 12601 against Super Special decreased by 1 yuan to 133.9 yuan, and the basis against Jinbuba decreased by 1 yuan to 44.3 yuan [4]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [4]. Rebar and Hot - Rolled Coil - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][6][7]. - Fundamental Data: For rebar contract RB2601, the closing price was 3,164 yuan/ton, up 1 yuan or 0.03%, and the trading volume increased by 812 hands. For hot - rolled coil contract HC2601, the closing price was 3,357 yuan/ton, up 8 yuan or 0.24%, and the trading volume increased by 668 hands. Spot prices in most regions changed slightly [7]. - News: In mid - September, the social inventory of 5 major steel products in 21 cities was 941 million tons, up 2.3% month - on - month. In August 2025, China's crude steel output was 77.37 million tons, a year - on - year decrease of 0.7% [8][9]. Ferrosilicon and Silicomanganese - Market Trend: Both are expected to have wide - range fluctuations due to sector sentiment resonance, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][11]. - Fundamental Data: For ferrosilicon contract 2511, the closing price was 5,742 yuan/ton, up 4 yuan. For silicomanganese contract 2511, the closing price was 5,900 yuan/ton, up 36 yuan. Spot prices of ferrosilicon in Inner Mongolia increased by 30 yuan/ton, while the price of silicomanganese remained unchanged [11]. - News: On September 24, the prices of different grades of ferrosilicon and silicomanganese in various regions were reported, and some companies announced their procurement prices [11]. Coke and Coking Coal - Market Trend: Both are expected to have repeated expectations and wide - range fluctuations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][15]. - Fundamental Data: For coking coal contract JM2601, the closing price was 1,224.5 yuan/ton, up 7 yuan or 0.6%. For coke contract J2601, the closing price was 1,730 yuan/ton, up 12.5 yuan or 0.7%. Spot prices of some coking coal varieties increased, while others remained unchanged [15]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [15]. Logs - Market Trend: Expected to have repeated oscillations, with a trend intensity of 0 [2][17]. - Fundamental Data: The closing price of contract 2511 was 807.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 0.2%. The trading volume decreased by 35.9%. The closing price of contract 2601 was 819 yuan/cubic meter, unchanged [18]. - News: On September 17, the US Federal Reserve lowered the federal funds rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.00% - 4.25% [20].