铅锌日评：震荡整理-20250925

Report Summary 1. Investment Ratings No investment ratings for the industry are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Lead: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots and the closing price of the main lead futures contract decreased slightly. The supply of lead is temporarily tightened, with no expected increase in lead concentrate imports, rising processing fees, and reduced production in the secondary lead sector. Demand from the terminal market is weak, and it is expected that the lead price will remain in high - level consolidation in the short term, with limited upside potential [1]. - Zinc: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots decreased slightly, while the closing price of the main zinc futures contract increased slightly. The supply of zinc is increasing, with sufficient raw material reserves in smelters and improved production enthusiasm. Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather. Although the fundamentals of Shanghai zinc are weak, the low LME zinc inventory and the expected interest rate cut support the zinc price, and the downside space of Shanghai zinc is expected to be limited in the short term [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Lead - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 lead ingots was 16,950 yuan/ton, down 0.15%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 17,065 yuan/ton, down 0.12%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 11.13% to 43,329 lots, and the open interest decreased by 4.49% to 61,071 lots; the LME3 - month lead futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,002.50 dollars/ton, up 0.18% [1]. - Supply: Lead concentrate imports have no expected increase, and processing fees are likely to rise. Some primary lead smelters have maintenance plans, and the start - up rate fluctuates slightly. In the secondary lead sector, due to raw material and loss factors, the start - up rate is less than 30%, and the supply is temporarily tightened [1]. - Demand: The terminal market shows no significant improvement, and dealers mainly digest inventory. Production enterprises produce according to sales. Attention should be paid to the pre - holiday inventory replenishment of downstream enterprises [1]. - News: A small secondary lead smelter in South China has resumed production, mainly for long - term order delivery. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 lead] was at a discount of 42.13 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 953 lots to 160,598 lots [1]. Zinc - Price and Market Indicators: The average price of SMM1 zinc ingots was 21,750 yuan/ton, down 0.28%; the closing price of the main futures contract was 21,860 yuan/ton, up 0.07%; the trading volume of the active futures contract decreased by 12.45% to 109,733 lots, and the open interest increased by 1.07% to 141,867 lots; the LME3 - month zinc futures closing price (electronic trading) was 2,922.50 dollars/ton, up 1.14% [1]. - Supply: Smelters have sufficient raw material inventories, and zinc ore processing fees are rising. The profit and production enthusiasm of smelters have improved, and the output shows an obvious increasing trend [1]. - Demand: Demand has slightly improved but was affected by typhoon weather, causing some enterprises in South China to shut down for about two days. The export window for zinc ingots may open as the Shanghai - London ratio deteriorates [1]. - News: The zinc output of Antamina Mine is expected to increase by 67% this year to 450,000 tons, offsetting a 12% decrease in copper output. On September 23, the [LME0 - 3 zinc] was at a premium of 43.16 dollars/ton, and the open interest increased by 493 lots to 216,077 lots [1]. 4. Trading Strategies - Lead: Temporarily hold a wait - and - see attitude [1]. - Zinc: Try to go long at low prices with a light position [1].