宝城期货国债期货早报-20250925

Group 1: Investment Rating - No investment rating information is provided in the report. Group 2: Core View - The report believes that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low. The treasury bond futures are expected to be in low - level volatile consolidation in the short term [1][5]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For the TL2512 variety, the short - term view is "shock", the medium - term view is "shock", the intraday view is "shock and weakening", and the overall view is "shock". The core logic is that the medium - and long - term expectation of interest rate cuts still exists, but the possibility of a short - term comprehensive interest rate cut is low [1]. 2. Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For varieties TL, T, TF, and TS, the intraday view is "shock and weakening", the medium - term view is "shock", and the reference view is "shock". The core logic is that treasury bond futures oscillated and declined yesterday. The possibility of a short - term policy interest rate cut is low, and the expectation of interest rate cuts has subsided, so the upward momentum of treasury bond futures is weak. In the medium and long term, the problem of insufficient effective domestic demand still exists, and the Fed's interest rate cut has greatly reduced the pressure on the RMB exchange rate, so future monetary policy is likely to be loose [5].