Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No investment rating information is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Protein Meal: In the short - term, the domestic supply of soybeans has great pressure, and the temporary cancellation of export tax in Argentina drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, suggesting a strategy of short - selling on rebounds. However, due to the low valuation of US soybeans and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the soybean meal market will fluctuate within a range [3][5]. - Oils: The low inventory of vegetable oils in India and Southeast Asian producing areas, the draft US biodiesel policy boosting soybean oil demand, and the expected decline in exportable volume of Indonesian biodiesel support the price center of oils. Oils are in a state of balanced or slightly loose current supply - demand and tight expected supply - demand, and are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [7][9]. - Sugar: Affected by factors such as high import volume in August and increased sugar production in Brazil's central - southern region, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [11][12]. - Cotton: Although it is the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption peak season, the downstream industrial chain's operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased domestic production in the far - month. Short - term Zhengzhou cotton prices are bearish, but low domestic cotton inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [14][15]. - Eggs: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong due to the expected improvement in supply - demand and capital game. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [17][18]. - Pigs: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [20][21]. 3. Summary by Category Protein Meal - Market Information: On Wednesday, US soybeans declined slightly. Argentina temporarily cancelled export tax, which is negative for international soybean prices. Domestic soybean meal spot prices dropped slightly by about 10 yuan/ton, with good trading volume and high pick - up volume. Last week, domestic port soybean inventory decreased by 700,000 tons, and soybean meal inventory increased by 90,000 tons. This week, the expected soybean crushing volume is 2.39 million tons. The total scale of about $7 billion for soybeans, corn, and wheat corresponds to nearly 7 - 8 million tons of soybean products (converted to soybeans). Argentina's November soybean premium is about 100 cents per bushel lower than Brazil's [3]. - Strategy: In the short - term, the domestic supply pressure is large, and the cancellation of Argentina's export tax drives soybean meal prices down. In the medium - term, the global soybean supply is loose, but due to low US soybean valuation and uncertainties in South American planting and weather, the market will fluctuate within a range [5]. Oils - Market Information: From September 1 - 10, 2025, Malaysia's palm oil exports decreased by 1.2% - 8.43%, and production decreased by 3.17% compared with the same period last month. In July, Indonesia's palm oil exports decreased, production increased, inventory increased, and domestic consumption decreased. On Wednesday, domestic three major oils rebounded. The recent decline in oils was due to weak Malaysian palm oil exports and short - term price cuts in Argentina [7]. - Strategy: Supported by factors such as low inventory in India and Southeast Asian producing areas and the draft US biodiesel policy, oils are expected to be volatile and bullish in the medium - term. Currently, with high valuation, the strategy is to buy on dips [9]. Sugar - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou sugar futures price rebounded. The closing price of the January contract was 5,497 yuan/ton, up 53 yuan/ton or 0.97% from the previous trading day. Spot prices in various regions remained unchanged. StoneX predicted that Brazil's central - southern region's sugar production in the 2026/27 season will reach 42.1 million tons, a year - on - year increase of 5.7% [11]. - Strategy: Affected by high import volume and increased production in Brazil, the overall trend of sugar prices is bearish. Technically, it is recommended to wait and see before the National Day holiday [12]. Cotton - Market Information: On Wednesday, the Zhengzhou cotton futures price fluctuated. The closing price of the January contract was 13,555 yuan/ton, up 15 yuan/ton or 0.11% from the previous trading day. As of September 19, the spinning mill's operating rate was 66.6%, and the weaving mill's operating rate was 37.9%. As of September 21, the US cotton good - to - excellent rate was 47% [14]. - Strategy: Although it is the consumption peak season, the downstream operating rate growth is weak, and there is an expectation of increased production in the far - month. Short - term prices are bearish, but low inventory and low prices may provide support, so short - term waiting and seeing is recommended [15]. Eggs - Market Information: Yesterday, the national egg price was mainly stable, with a few rising or falling. The average price in the main producing areas remained at 3.62 yuan/jin. Supply was stable, and downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened, with general sales. Today's egg price may be stable or decline [17]. - Strategy: The spot price is expected to decline. The near - month futures contract is weak, while the far - month contract is relatively strong. It is recommended to wait and see in the short - term and focus on buying the far - month contract after a decline [18]. Pigs - Market Information: Yesterday, domestic pig prices showed a mixed trend. The average price in Henan dropped by 0.1 yuan to 12.78 yuan/kg. With sufficient supply of standard pigs and approaching the double - festival holiday, downstream stocking enthusiasm may gradually increase. Today's pig price may be stable or decline [20]. - Strategy: The current spot price shows a slight accelerating downward trend. The futures market may continue to be weak in the short - term. The strategy is to short the near - month contract and conduct reverse arbitrage, while being aware of high - position risks [21].
五矿期货农产品早报-20250925
Wu Kuang Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:08