工业硅&多晶硅日评20250925：高位整理-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided in the report 2. Core Viewpoints - The industrial silicon market is in high - level consolidation. The supply side has potential disturbances, and the short - term silicon price may maintain high - level consolidation, but there is a risk of a subsequent decline. For polysilicon, the price is also in high - level consolidation, and it is difficult for the spot price to rise further in the short term due to high downstream raw material inventories [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Industrial Silicon - Price Data: The average price of non - oxygenated 553 (East China) remained flat at 9,200 yuan/ton, and the average price of 421 (East China) remained flat at 9,700 yuan/ton. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 1.06% to 9,020 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, some previously shut - down silicon plants in Xinjiang have resumed production, and the start - up rate in the southwest region has steadily increased. On the demand side, polysilicon enterprises are still reducing production, some silicon material plants have复产 plans, organic silicon supply has tightened and then recovered, and silicon - aluminum alloy enterprises purchase on demand [1]. - Investment Strategy: Adopt interval operation and continue to hold out - of - the - money put options [1]. Polysilicon - Price Data: N - type dense material fell 0.29% to 51 yuan/kg, N - type re - feed material fell 0.28% to 52.5 yuan/kg, N - type mixed material fell 0.30% to 50 yuan/kg, and N - type granular silicon remained flat at 49.5 yuan/kg. The closing price of the futures main contract rose 2.23% to 51,380 yuan/ton [1]. - Supply and Demand: On the supply side, silicon material enterprises are still reducing production, and some may have new capacity put into operation, with a slight increase in expected output. On the demand side, trading volume has increased significantly, inventory has decreased, but terminal demand pressure is large, and component price increases face resistance [1]. - Investment Strategy: Before the supply - side reform policy is implemented, try to go long on dips with a light position [1]. Industry News - On the evening of September 24, Xinjiang Dongfang Hope New Energy Co., Ltd. started the annual routine maintenance of its first - phase polysilicon production line, and its third - phase project is ready for shutdown and maintenance. This is expected to have a positive impact on product quality and production stability, and will not have a major impact on overall supply [1]. - On September 23, the winning bid results of the first - batch photovoltaic module procurement framework (third tender) of a technology company from 2025 - 2026 were announced, with winning bid prices ranging from 0.71 - 0.76 yuan/W [1].