Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The short - term view of the stock index futures is wide - range oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, and the intraday view is weakly oscillating. The core logic lies in the game between the short - term profit - taking intention of funds and the long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1][5]. 3. Summary According to the Catalog 3.1 Variety View Reference - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - For IH2512, the short - term view is oscillation, the medium - term view is upward, the intraday view is weakly oscillating, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. The core logic is the game between short - term profit - taking intention of funds and long - and medium - term fermentation of policy - favorable expectations [1]. 3.2 Main Variety Price Market Driving Logic - Financial Futures Stock Index Sector - The intraday view of IF, IH, IC, and IM is weakly oscillating, the medium - term view is upward, and the reference view is wide - range oscillation. Yesterday, all stock indices rose comprehensively, with IC and IM leading the gains. The total turnover of the Shanghai, Shenzhen, and Beijing stock markets was 2347.1 billion yuan, a decrease of 171.3 billion yuan from the previous day. The rebound was accompanied by a reduction in stock market trading volume and a decrease in the open interest of stock index futures, indicating that investors still have differences in their views on the future market. The main trading logic of the stock market comes from policy expectations and capital flows. The game between the profit - taking rhythm of funds and the fermentation of policy expectations needs to be focused on. On one hand, as the valuation has risen significantly, especially when the index rebounds to near the previous high, the demand for profit - taking of profitable funds increases. On the other hand, the policy - favorable expectations and the long - term net inflow trend of the capital side constitute the long - and medium - term driving force for the upward movement of the stock index. The fermentation of policy - favorable expectations depends on the convening of the important meeting in October. The fact that the margin trading balance has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan and the significant year - on - year increase in new non - bank deposits in July and August indicate the signs of residents' wealth allocation to the equity market. In general, due to the index approaching the previous high and the approaching long holiday, the stock index is expected to be mainly in wide - range oscillation in the short term [5].
宝城期货股指期货早报（2025年9月25日）-20250925
Bao Cheng Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:13