软商品日报：新棉批量上市，棉花短期承压-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - The investment rating for sugar is "sideways" [1] - The investment rating for cotton is "sideways" [1] 2. Core View of the Report - Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years. The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, which has postponed the opening time of sugar mills. The market maintains the expectation of oversupply [1][3] - The current commercial inventory of cotton continues to decline, and the cotton textile peak season is coming soon, providing bottom support for cotton prices. The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to pick up seasonally during the traditional peak season, with upward price momentum [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalog 3.1 Market Quotes - External Market Quotes: On September 24, 2025, the closing price of US sugar was 16.12, with a change of -0.25%; the closing price of US cotton was 66.14, with a change of -0.71% [1][4] - Spot Prices: On September 24, 2025, the spot price of sugar in Nanning was 5780.0 yuan, unchanged; the spot price in Kunming was 5800.0 yuan, unchanged; the cotton index 328 was 3280, with a change of -0.47%; the spot price of cotton in Xinjiang was 15050.0 yuan, with a change of -0.66% [1][4] - Price Spreads: The price spreads of sugar and cotton contracts have changed to varying degrees, such as SR05 - 09 changing from -22.0 to -14.0, a change of -36.36%; CF01 - 05 changing from -20.0 to 15.0, a change of -175.00% [4] - Import Prices: On September 24, 2025, the import price of cotton cotlookA was 77.85, unchanged [4] - Profit Margins: The import profit of sugar on September 24, 2025, was 1549.0, unchanged [4] - Options: The implied volatility and historical volatility of sugar and cotton options are provided, such as the implied volatility of SR601C5500 being 0.0881 and the historical volatility of SR601 being 6.52 [4] - Inventory Warrants: On September 24, 2025, the number of Zhengzhou sugar warrants was 9854.0, with a change of -1.68%; the number of Zhengzhou cotton warrants was 3716.0, with a change of -5.08% [2][4] 3.2 Supply and Demand Analysis - Sugar: Sugar consumption has seasonally recovered due to the demand for cold drinks during the summer vacation, and sugar imports have increased significantly recently due to the widening price difference between domestic and foreign markets [1] - Cotton: In August, the temperature in the cotton - growing areas of Xinjiang and the Yangtze River Basin was high and the precipitation was low, increasing the risk of high - temperature heat damage to cotton. The current commercial inventory of cotton continues to decline, and the cotton textile peak season is coming soon, providing bottom support for cotton prices [1] 3.3 Conclusion and Strategy - Sugar: The overall growth of sugarcane in southern producing areas is good, but the beet harvest in Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia has been affected, which has postponed the opening time of sugar mills. The Brazilian sugar production progress has accelerated, and the market maintains the expectation of oversupply. The international sugar price is weakly fluctuating above the lowest point in the past four years [3] - Cotton: The import of cotton is lower than expected, and the expected ending inventory is lowered. The overall growth of cotton is better than last year, and the demand for cotton is expected to pick up seasonally during the traditional peak season, with upward price momentum [3] - Strategy: It is recommended to mainly adopt a wait - and - see strategy [3]