20250925申万期货有色金属基差日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Summary - The report provides a daily update on the basis of non - ferrous metals futures, including copper, zinc, etc., and offers short - term price trend views and strategies [2] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Views - Copper may have short - term range - bound fluctuations. The night - session copper price rose 3.31%. The Grasberg mine accident in Indonesia led to a reduced supply expectation. The concentrate supply has been tight since the beginning of the year, and the smelting profit is on the verge of profit and loss, but the smelting output has continued to grow. The power industry has positive growth, the PV rush - installation has increased sharply year - on - year, and the future growth rate may slow down. The auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The Indonesian mine accident is likely to turn the global copper supply - demand into a deficit, which will support the copper price in the long term [2] - Zinc may have short - term wide - range weak - side fluctuations. The night - session zinc price rose 0.62%. The zinc concentrate processing fee has generally recovered, the smelting profit has turned positive, and the smelting output is expected to continue to rise. The galvanized sheet inventory has increased weekly. The infrastructure investment cumulative growth rate has a small positive growth, the auto production and sales are growing, the home appliance output growth rate is slowing down, and the real estate is weak. The short - term supply - demand difference may tilt towards surplus, and the zinc price may fluctuate weakly within a range [2] Group 4: Market Data Summary Copper - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 79,970 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 25 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 10,320 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 31.37 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 144,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 400 tons [2] Aluminum - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 20,705 yuan/ton, domestic basis: 0 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,655 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 5.44 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 513,850 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 50 tons [2] Zinc - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 21,845 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 105 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,923 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: 59.64 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 45,775 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,050 tons [2] Nickel - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 121,250 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 1,250 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 15,435 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 178.85 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 230,454 tons, LME inventory daily change: 1,554 tons [2] Lead - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 17,030 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 115 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 2,003 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 40.08 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 219,975 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 1,700 tons [2] Tin - Domestic previous - day futures closing price: 271,650 yuan/ton, domestic basis: - 960 yuan/ton, previous - day LME 3 - month closing price: 34,315 dollars/ton, LME spot premium: - 105.00 dollars/ton, LME inventory: 2,575 tons, LME inventory daily change: - 5 tons [2]