中国人民银行今日早评-20250925

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings No industry investment ratings are provided in the report. 2. Core Views - Commodities Market: The overall commodities market shows a mixed trend with various factors influencing each commodity. Some commodities are expected to be in a state of shock, while others are expected to show a certain upward or downward trend. - Macroeconomic and Geopolitical Factors: Geopolitical events, such as the conflict between Ukraine and Russia, and trade agreements, like the Indonesia - EU economic partnership agreement, have significant impacts on the market. Macroeconomic policies, such as the central bank's MLF operations, also affect the financial market. 3. Summary by Commodity Alkali - Market Conditions: The national mainstream price of heavy - alkali is 1,283 yuan/ton, with stable recent prices. Weekly production is 74.57 tons, a 2.02% week - on - week decrease. Total inventory is 175.56 tons, a 2.33% weekly decline. The float glass start - up rate is 76.01%, remaining stable weekly. - Outlook: The float glass market has stable start - up and slightly decreasing inventory, with weak demand. The domestic alkali market price is stable with general downstream demand. The 01 contract of alkali is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 1,285. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [1]. Gold - Market Conditions: The US has imposed a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts since August 1, and some EU products are on the tariff exemption list since September 1. - Outlook: Geopolitical and tariff risks are increasing, which is beneficial for gold. However, the rising US dollar index exerts pressure on gold. The expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut is beneficial for precious metals. Gold is expected to fluctuate upward [1]. Crude Oil - Market Conditions: As of September 19, the total US crude oil inventory decreased by 380,000 barrels, commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 610,000 barrels, and gasoline inventory decreased by 1.08 million barrels. Daily production increased by 19,000 barrels compared to the previous week. - Outlook: The continuous attacks on Russian oil facilities by Ukraine and the decline in US crude oil inventory have intensified supply concerns, causing overnight crude oil prices to rise. However, there is still pressure of oversupply. It is recommended to wait and see [3]. Rubber - Market Conditions: Thai raw material prices are mixed. Thailand's exports of natural rubber and mixed rubber in the first eight months increased by 6.3% year - on - year, and exports to China increased by 27%. Global light - vehicle sales in August increased by 4.1% year - on - year. - Outlook: Typhoons in the producing areas have affected rubber tapping. Downstream pre - holiday restocking has ended, and inventory reduction is difficult. Rubber is in a situation of low inventory and weak demand, and it is expected to fluctuate [4]. PTA - Market Conditions: The overall polyester market inventory is concentrated between 16 - 26 days. PTA maintenance devices are resuming, and the start - up rate is increasing. PX supply is increasing, and PXN is under pressure. - Outlook: Polyester inventory is decreasing, and short - term demand has some support, but the expectation of new orders and load recovery is limited. PTA is expected to fluctuate [5]. Live Pigs - Market Conditions: On September 24, the average wholesale price of pork increased by 0.2% compared to the previous day. - Outlook: The national pig price showed mixed trends, with the Northeast region being stronger and some southern regions weaker. The breeding end has high pressure, and terminal demand has limited increase. Near the end of the month, the breeding end's price - holding sentiment is rising, and it is recommended to try short - term long with limited upside space [5]. Soybeans - Market Conditions: Brazil's ANEC has lowered the September soybean export forecast from 7.53 million tons to 7.15 million tons and the September soybean meal export forecast from 2.19 million tons to 2.1 million tons. - Outlook: Imported soybeans are expected to rebound, and bean 2 is expected to fluctuate upward. Domestic soybeans are under pressure due to increasing supply and weak demand, and bean 1 is expected to continue to be under pressure in the short term [6][7]. Palm Oil - Market Conditions: Indonesia and the EU have signed an economic partnership agreement, which will promote trade liberalization. - Outlook: The international export environment for Indonesian palm oil has improved, and the sales pressure of Malaysian palm oil has been relieved. Domestic demand is suppressed by price increases, but the inventory pressure of oil mills has been relieved. Palm oil is expected to fluctuate upward in the short term [7]. Medium - and Long - Term Treasury Bonds - Market Conditions: The central bank will conduct 600 billion yuan of MLF operations on September 25, with a net investment of 300 billion yuan. - Outlook: The central bank's monetary policy is oriented towards liquidity easing. The Fed's interest rate cut may have a negative impact on the bond market, and the operation of the bond market is more difficult [8]. Methanol - Market Conditions: The market price of methanol in Jiangsu Taicang is 2,255 yuan/ton, an increase of 15 yuan/ton. The domestic methanol capacity utilization rate decreased by 4.68%, and downstream capacity utilization increased by 2.2%. - Outlook: Domestic methanol start - up is decreasing from a high level, downstream demand is rising, and port inventory is decreasing. Methanol 01 contract is expected to fluctuate downward in the short term, with support at 2,350. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long [9]. Silver - Market Conditions: US new home sales in August were much higher than expected, and the inventory of new homes for sale reached the lowest level this year. - Outlook: New home sales data may boost US economic confidence, which is beneficial for silver. Silver is expected to fluctuate upward [9]. Plastic - Market Conditions: The mainstream price of LLDPE in North China is 7,233 yuan/ton, a decrease of 13 yuan/ton. LLDPE weekly production increased by 3.21%, and production enterprise inventory decreased by 8.93%. - Outlook: The price of LLDPE is weak, production enterprise inventory is decreasing, supply is sufficient, and downstream start - up rate is expected to rise. The L2601 contract is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with support at 7,135. It is recommended to wait and see or do short - term long on dips [10][11].