申万期货品种策略日报：贵金属-20250925

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core View of the Report - The upward trend of gold and silver has paused, showing some adjustments. The Fed's stance on interest rate cuts remains cautious, but the prospect of rate cuts is clear. The market expects rate cuts in the remaining two meetings this year. The long - term driver for gold is still clear due to factors such as the US fiscal deficit and central banks' gold purchases. However, there is a short - term adjustment [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Gold Futures: For沪金2510, the current price is 850.12, down 5.92 (-0.69%) from the previous close. The持仓量 is 60076, and the成交量 is 75472. For沪金2512, the current price is 853.06, down 6.94 (-0.81%), with a持仓量 of 274765 and a成交量 of 285621 [2]. - Silver Futures: For沪银2510, the current price is 10305.00, down 49.00 (-0.47%), with a持仓量 of 109776 and a成交量 of 175883. For沪银2512, the current price is 10349.00, down 48.00 (-0.46%), with a持仓量 of 516112 and a成交量 of 753535 [2]. Spot Market - Gold Spot: The Shanghai gold T + D previous closing price was 856.27, up 6.69 (0.79%). The London gold price was 856.56, down 3.86 (-0.45%), and in dollars per ounce, it was 3735.805, down 27.18 (-0.72%) [2]. - Silver Spot: The Shanghai silver T + D previous closing price was 10349.00, up 74.00 (0.72%). The London silver price was 43.89, down 0.13 (-0.29%) [2]. Inventory - Gold Inventory: The上期所黄金库存 increased by 1530.00 kg to 60543 kg, and the COMEX黄金库存 increased by 62032.18 to 39807223 [2]. - Silver Inventory: The上期所白银 inventory increased by 12756.00 kg to 1161799 kg, and the COMEX白银 inventory increased by 406878 to 527155089 [2]. Related Data - The dollar index increased by 0.65% to 97.8657, the standard -普尔指数 decreased by 0.28% to 6637.97, the US Treasury yield increased by 0.97% to 4.16, the Brent crude oil price increased by 0.01% to 68.26, and the US dollar to RMB exchange rate increased by 0.34% to 7.1379 [2]. Derivatives - The spdr黄金ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons to 44315 tons, the SLV白银ETF持仓 increased by 1.00 tons to 44315 tons. The CFTC speculators' net position in silver increased by 481 to 33486, and in gold decreased by 1451 to 32895 [2]. Macro News - The US and the EU have finalized a tariff agreement. The US will impose a 15% tariff on EU cars and parts from August 1st, and some EU products are on the tariff - exemption list from September 1st [2]. - US Treasury Secretary Besent criticized Fed Chairman Powell for not having a clear agenda for rate cuts and urged a 100 - 150 basis - point rate cut by the end of the year. The US Treasury is considering a $20 billion currency swap with Argentina [2]. - In August, the annualized number of new home sales in the US was 800,000, far exceeding the expected 650,000, with a month - on - month increase of 20.5%. The inventory of new homes for sale dropped to 490,000, the lowest level this year [3].