铜：铜矿不可抗力扰动，价格大涨

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content 2. Core View of the Report - The price of copper has risen significantly due to force majeure disturbances in copper mines. The trend strength of copper is 2, indicating a strong bullish view [1][3] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Copper Fundamental Data - Futures Prices: The closing price of the Shanghai copper main contract was 79,960 with a daily increase of 0.05%, and the night - session closing price was 82,610 with a night - session increase of 3.31%. The LME copper 3M electronic disk had a closing price of 10,320 with a daily increase of 3.27% [1] - Trading Volume and Open Interest: The trading volume of the Shanghai copper main contract was 51,727, a decrease of 11,472 from the previous day, and the open interest was 172,444, a decrease of 850. The trading volume of the LME copper 3M electronic disk was 47,088, an increase of 35,670, and the open interest was 290,000, an increase of 405 [1] - Futures Inventory: The Shanghai copper inventory was 27,419, a decrease of 308, and the LME copper inventory was 144,775, a decrease of 200. The LME copper注销仓单 ratio was 8.13%, a decrease of 0.06% [1] - Spreads: Various spreads such as LME copper basis, warehouse warrant premium in bonded areas, etc. showed different changes compared to the previous day. For example, the LME copper basis decreased by 0.67, and the Shanghai copper spot - to - LME cash spread decreased by 23 [1] 3.2 Macro and Industry News - Macro News: The US officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the EU automobile tariff to 15% from August 1st. Someone named Bessent urged the Fed to cut interest rates by 100 - 150 basis points by the end of the year and is interviewing 11 candidates for the Fed chair [1] - Industry News: In August, China's refined copper imports were 307,200 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 8.17% and a year - on - year increase of 11.14%. Congo was still the largest supplier, with a supply of 126,300 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.55% and a year - on - year increase of 26.49%. Freeport announced force majeure at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia, and its comprehensive sales in Q3 2025 are expected to be about 4% lower for copper and about 6% lower for gold compared to the July 2025 estimate [1][3]