五矿期货早报：有色金属-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - For copper, short - term prices are expected to remain strong. The Fed's hawkish stance may cause short - term emotional pressure, but if the interest - rate cut process advances, market sentiment won't be significantly suppressed. Supply tensions are intensifying, and there is still some pre - holiday stocking demand [3][4]. - For aluminum, the price has strong support at the bottom and may rebound upward in the short term. Although the Fed's stance is not as dovish as expected, the advancing interest - rate cut won't significantly suppress market sentiment. The downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve [5][6]. - For lead, the short - term price of Shanghai lead is expected to be strong. The shortage of raw materials restricts primary smelting, while the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and downstream demand has increased slightly [7][8]. - For zinc, the short - term price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak. The surplus of zinc ore has eased, domestic social inventory is still accumulating, and the Fed's monetary policy statement has cooled the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector [9][10]. - For tin, the short - term price will continue to fluctuate. The supply and demand are in a tight balance, the resumption of production in Myanmar has uncertain volume, and the demand in the peak season is warming up [11][12]. - For nickel, in the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, the price may decline further. In the medium and long term, the price has support, and it is recommended to buy on dips [14][16]. - For lithium carbonate, it continues to fluctuate and adjust. Strong demand supports the bottom, but supply recovery expectations suppress the upside. It is necessary to pay attention to supply sustainability, demand realization, and the equity market atmosphere [18][19]. - For alumina, it is recommended to wait and see in the short term. The smelting capacity is in surplus, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metals sector [21][22]. - For stainless steel, the short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range. Steel mills are reluctant to lower prices, and there is support at the bottom, but consumer demand has not improved significantly [24][25]. - For cast aluminum alloy, the price is under pressure at the top and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum. The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure [27][28]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Copper Market Information - On Wednesday, LME copper rose 3.27% to $10320/ton, and the Shanghai copper main contract closed at 82610 yuan/ton. The LME copper inventory decreased by 200 to 144775 tons, and the domestic SHFE copper warehouse receipts decreased by 0.03 to 27000 tons. The domestic copper spot import remained slightly in the red [3]. Strategy Viewpoint - The Fed's hawkish stance may cause short - term emotional pressure, but if the interest - rate cut process advances, market sentiment won't be significantly suppressed. Supply tensions are intensifying, and there is still some pre - holiday stocking demand. Short - term copper prices are expected to remain strong [4]. Aluminum Market Information - On Wednesday, LME aluminum rose 0.32% to $2654/ton, and the Shanghai aluminum main contract closed at 20805 yuan/ton. The SHFE aluminum weighted contract positions decreased by 0.5 to 496000 lots, and the futures warehouse receipts decreased by 0.1 to 68000 tons. The domestic three - place aluminum ingot inventory decline increased, and the aluminum rod inventory continued to decrease [5]. Strategy Viewpoint - Although the Fed's stance is not as dovish as expected, the advancing interest - rate cut won't significantly suppress market sentiment. The downstream consumption willingness is expected to improve, and the price has strong support at the bottom and may rebound upward in the short term [6]. Lead Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai lead index closed down 0.10% at 17063 yuan/ton. The LME lead 3S rose $6.5 to $2000.5/ton. The SHFE lead ingot futures inventory was 38200 tons, and the domestic social inventory decreased to 51100 tons [7]. Strategy Viewpoint - The shortage of raw materials restricts primary smelting, while the profit of secondary smelting has recovered, and downstream demand has increased slightly. The short - term price of Shanghai lead is expected to be strong, and attention should be paid to the holiday arrangements of downstream battery enterprises during the National Day [8]. Zinc Market Information - On Wednesday, the Shanghai zinc index closed up 0.06% at 21865 yuan/ton. The LME zinc 3S rose $12 to $2882/ton. The SHFE zinc ingot futures inventory was 57400 tons, and the domestic social inventory slightly decreased to 157000 tons [9]. Strategy Viewpoint - The surplus of zinc ore has eased, domestic social inventory is still accumulating, and the Fed's monetary policy statement has cooled the sentiment of the non - ferrous metals sector. The short - term price of Shanghai zinc is expected to be weak [10]. Tin Market Information - On September 24, 2025, the Shanghai tin main contract closed at 271650 yuan/ton, up 0.66%. The supply is tight, and the production in September is expected to decrease by 29.89% month - on - month. The demand in the traditional consumer electronics and home appliance sectors is still weak, but it has improved marginally in the peak season [11]. Strategy Viewpoint - The short - term supply and demand are in a tight balance. Although the tin mines in Myanmar's Wa State are about to resume production, the volume is uncertain. With the warming up of demand in the peak season, the price is expected to continue to fluctuate. It is recommended to wait and see [12]. Nickel Market Information - On Wednesday, the nickel price fluctuated. The Shanghai nickel main contract closed at 121450 yuan/ton, up 0.45%. The nickel ore price was stable, the nickel iron price was firm, and the MHP coefficient price increased slightly [14]. Strategy Viewpoint - In the short term, if the refined nickel inventory continues to increase, the price may decline further. In the medium and long term, the price has support, and it is recommended to buy on dips. The short - term price range of the Shanghai nickel main contract is 115000 - 128000 yuan/ton [15][16]. Lithium Carbonate Market Information - The MMLC spot index of lithium carbonate was flat at 72987 yuan. The LC2511 contract closed at 72880 yuan, down 1.06%. The average premium of battery - grade lithium carbonate in the trading market was - 200 yuan [18]. Strategy Viewpoint - It continues to fluctuate and adjust. Strong demand supports the bottom, but supply recovery expectations suppress the upside. It is necessary to pay attention to supply sustainability, demand realization, and the equity market atmosphere. The reference operating range of the Guangzhou Futures Exchange's lithium carbonate 2511 contract is 71600 - 75800 yuan/ton [19]. Alumina Market Information - On September 24, 2025, the alumina index rose 1.01% to 2908 yuan/ton. The unilateral trading positions decreased by 1.2 to 432000 lots. The Shandong spot price decreased by 15 to 2910 yuan/ton, with a premium of 40 yuan/ton over the 10 - contract. The overseas MYSTEEL Australia FOB price was stable at $322/ton, and the import window opened [21]. Strategy Viewpoint - The smelting capacity is in surplus, and the opening of the import window may exacerbate the surplus. However, the Fed's interest - rate cut expectation may drive the non - ferrous metals sector. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, and the reference operating range of the domestic main contract AO2601 is 2800 - 3100 yuan/ton [22]. Stainless Steel Market Information - On Wednesday, the stainless - steel main contract closed at 12895 yuan/ton, up 0.04%. The unilateral positions decreased by 3317 to 269100 lots. The spot prices in Foshan and Wuxi markets were stable. The raw material prices were also stable, and the social inventory decreased by 2.51% [24]. Strategy Viewpoint - Steel mills are reluctant to lower prices, and there is support at the bottom, but consumer demand has not improved significantly. The short - term price will fluctuate within a narrow range [25]. Cast Aluminum Alloy Market Information - As of Wednesday afternoon, the AD2511 contract rebounded 0.22% to 20300 yuan/ton. The weighted contract positions increased, and the trading volume increased. The domestic three - place aluminum alloy ingot inventory increased by 0.07 to 50700 tons [27]. Strategy Viewpoint - The downstream is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but the peak - season characteristics are not obvious, and there is delivery pressure. The price is under pressure at the top and supported by the cost of scrap aluminum [28].