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格林大华期货早盘提示:白糖-20250925
Ge Lin Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:28

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Ratings - Sugar: Bullish with an upward - trending oscillation [1] - Red Dates: Oscillating [4] - Rubber: Oscillating, including natural rubber, 20 - grade rubber, and synthetic rubber [5] 2. Core Views - Sugar: The market anticipates a favorable output in the global 2025/26 sugar - crushing season, causing overseas sugar prices to decline. However, there are signs of the raw sugar futures stabilizing. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures, and attention should be paid to the subsequent performance of the external market [1]. - Red Dates: After continuous price drops, the futures have signs of stabilizing and rebounding. The downward space is limited, and future focus should be on capital trends and jujube quality [4]. - Rubber: Natural rubber prices have slightly stabilized, but the raw material price support and the news of state - reserve sales have opposite impacts on the market, and short - term range trading is recommended. Synthetic rubber trading atmosphere has weakened, and it may maintain a narrow - range oscillation [5]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Sugar - Market Review: SR601 closed at 5497 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.97%, and SR605 closed at 5464 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.98% [1]. - Important Information: ICE raw sugar closed at 16.12 cents/pound with a 0.25% daily decrease; Brazil's 2026/27 sugar output is expected to reach 42.1 million tons, a 5.7% increase; Thailand's 2025/26 output is expected to be 11.4 million tons; India's 2025/26 output is expected to be 32.3 million tons; the global sugar supply in 2025/26 is expected to have a surplus of 2.77 million tons [1]. - Market Logic: Overseas sugar prices are bottom - seeking, but there are signs of stabilization. Domestic sugar market has limited impact on Zhengzhou sugar futures [1]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in SR601 and pay attention to whether it can stay above 5500 yuan/ton [1]. Red Dates - Market Review: CJ601 closed at 10758 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.05%, and CJ605 closed at 10820 yuan/ton with a daily increase of 0.28% [4]. - Important Information: The physical inventory of 36 sample points decreased by 74 tons to 9247 tons, a 0.79% decrease [4]. - Market Logic: After continuous decline, the futures may stabilize and rebound, and the downward space is limited [4]. - Trading Strategy: Hold long positions in CJ601 and wait and see [4]. Rubber - Market Review: RU2601 closed at 15620 yuan/ton with a 0.61% daily increase; NR2511 closed at 12465 yuan/ton with a 0.56% daily increase; BR2511 closed at 11520 yuan/ton with a 0.79% daily increase [5]. - Important Information: Thailand's raw material prices are provided; tire production capacity utilization rates and inventory data in Qingdao are given; prices of various rubber products are reported [5]. - Market Logic: Natural rubber prices are slightly stable, affected by raw material prices and state - reserve sales news; synthetic rubber trading atmosphere is weakening, and it may oscillate narrowly [5]. - Trading Strategy: Pay attention to the activity ranges of RU2601 (15500 - 16370), NR (12200 - 12800), and BR (11300 - 12000) [5].