Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views of the Report - The short - term geopolitical risks dominate the rebound of oil prices, and the value of call options to protect short positions remains. Precious metals have an unchanged medium - term upward trend but increased short - term volatility. The copper market is still vigilant about macro - economic fluctuations and actual consumption. Most commodities are affected by factors such as supply, demand, geopolitical risks, and policy changes, showing different trends including upward, downward, and range - bound oscillations [2][3][4] Summary by Commodity Categories Metals - Crude Oil: Overnight international oil prices continued to rebound, with the Brent 11 - contract up 1.89%. Last week's decline in US EIA inventories and geopolitical risks supported the market. Short - term geopolitical risks drive the price rebound [2] - Precious Metals: Overnight, precious metals oscillated and declined. Powell's speech and Fed officials' views on interest rate cuts led to increased short - term volatility. The medium - term upward trend remains unchanged, but it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [3] - Copper: Overnight, LME copper hit a new high this year. The global second - largest copper mine Grasberg declared force majeure, reducing the 2026 production target. Technically, LME copper has the potential to break through, but attention should be paid to capital allocation and macro - economic indicators [4] - Aluminum: Overnight, the rise in copper prices drove non - ferrous metals to oscillate strongly. In September, aluminum's apparent consumption was below expectations, and there was limited upward momentum [5] - Cast Aluminum Alloy: It follows the fluctuations of SHFE aluminum. Tight scrap aluminum supply and tax policy adjustment expectations may make it more resilient [6] - Alumina: The operating capacity reached a new high, and the inventory continued to rise. Supply is in excess, and the price is weakly running, with support around 2800 yuan [7] - Zinc: The internal and external markets diverged. The zinc ingot export window is close to opening, but the export volume is expected to be limited. Domestic consumption is weak, and the inventory accumulation expectation is strong [8] - Lead: The profit of secondary lead is recovering, and the restocking demand before the festival is approaching the end. The market is in a state of weak supply and demand, oscillating between 17,000 - 17,300 yuan [9] - Nickel and Stainless Steel: SHFE nickel oscillated, and the market trading was dull. The short - term macro - favorable factors have been exhausted, and nickel prices are expected to decline [10] - Tin: Overnight, tin prices oscillated. There are supply - side themes, but the market is still concerned about consumption. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines in the short term [11] Energy and Chemicals - Fuel Oil & Low - Sulfur Fuel Oil: Overnight, the fuel oil market continued to rise, driven by geopolitical news. In the short term, geopolitical conflicts may push up prices, but in the medium term, the demand is in the off - season, and the supply is expected to be loose [22] - Asphalt: The weekly shipment volume increased significantly. The 10 - month production plan shows a year - on - year increase. The inventory level decreased. The supply - demand balance pattern continues, and there is support below [23] - Liquefied Petroleum Gas: The refinery's self - use of LPG increased, and the import was affected by typhoons. The demand increased slightly. The market is expected to oscillate at the bottom [24] - Urea: The urea futures price rose yesterday. Agricultural sales improved slightly, but supply still exceeded demand, and the inventory continued to accumulate [25] - Methanol: The main methanol contract stopped falling and stabilized. The port inventory decreased, and the pre - festival restocking demand provided support, but high - inventory expectations limited the upside [26] - Pure Benzene: The futures price continued to rebound, driven by the rise in oil prices. The weekly operating rate decreased slightly, and the port inventory declined, but the high - import expectation and poor downstream profits were negative factors [27] - Benzene Ethylene: The market supply is abundant, and the downstream purchases on demand, with poor trading atmosphere [28] - Polypropylene, Plastic & Propylene: The propylene supply is increasing, and the market trading improved slightly. The polyethylene inventory accumulated, and the price was under pressure. The polypropylene supply is still loose, and the spot market lacks strong support [29] - PVC & Caustic Soda: PVC is in a pattern of loose supply and demand, and the inventory pressure is large. Caustic soda is in a pattern of weak reality and strong expectation, and the futures price may oscillate [30] - PX & PTA: The strong expectation of PX weakened, and the valuation declined. The PTA profit is still poor, and the downstream has restocking expectations before the festival [31] - Ethylene Glycol: The price continued to fall, and the new - device production impact was digested. The short - term oil price provides upward momentum, but the expectation is weak, and there is a risk of inventory accumulation [32] - Short - Fiber & Bottle Chip: The short - fiber inventory decreased, and the demand improved. The bottle chip was affected by the typhoon, and the long - term over - capacity is a pressure [33] - Glass: The glass futures price rose significantly due to industry meetings and price - increase plans. The short - term price may oscillate strongly, but it may return to a weak state if capacity reduction doesn't materialize [34] - Soda Ash: It followed the rise of glass. The long - term supply is in excess, and it's advisable to look for opportunities to short at high prices, but be cautious near the cost [36] Agricultural Products - Soybean & Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market should be observed. The short - term negative factors may end, and there is a long - term cautious bullish view [37] - Soybean Oil & Palm Oil: The mid - term soybean and palm oil are expected to trade in a range. The supply of palm oil has a driving force in the fourth - quarter. Protective call strategies can be considered to hedge risks [38] - Rapeseed Meal & Rapeseed Oil: The rapeseed - related futures prices are still under short - term pressure. The oil - meal ratio may be boosted in autumn and winter [39] - Soybean No. 1: The domestic soybean price rebounded from a low level. Attention should be paid to the purchase volume and price of domestic soybeans and the performance of imported soybeans [40] - Corn: The Dalian corn futures may continue to be weak at the bottom around the National Day due to new - grain supply and weak downstream demand [41] - Live Pig: The live - pig futures price is bearish. Attention should be paid to the re - entry of secondary fattening and the government's support policy [42] - Egg: The egg futures adjusted weakly. The short - term price increase is limited, and long - term contracts can be considered for long positions [43] - Cotton: The US cotton price oscillated. The domestic cotton supply is expected to be abundant, and the demand support is limited. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines after the breakdown [44] - Sugar: The US sugar oscillated. The Brazilian sugar production may remain high, and the domestic sugar production expectation for the next season is relatively good [45] - Apple: The apple futures price oscillated downward. The expected high inventory in the new season is a negative factor [46] - Timber: The futures price oscillated. The supply is low, the demand in the peak season is weak, and it's advisable to stay on the sidelines [47] - Pulp: The pulp futures oscillated at a low level. The port inventory is high, the supply is loose, and the demand is average. It's advisable to stay on the sidelines or trade in a range [48] Others - Stock Index: The A - share market may oscillate strongly at a high level in the short term. It's advisable to increase the allocation of technology - growth sectors in the medium term and consider the Hang Seng Tech Index [48] - Treasury Bond: The treasury - bond futures prices fell, and the yield curve may steepen. Attention should be paid to the central bank's MLF operations [49]
综合晨报-20250925
Guo Tou Qi Huo·2025-09-25 02:37