贵金属日评：美联储26年降息次数减少施压贵金属价格-20250925

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided 2. Core View of the Report - The market expects the Fed to reduce the number of interest rate cuts in 2026 from 3 to 2, which may lead to short - term adjustments in precious metal prices. However, considering the expected expansion of fiscal deficits in many countries, geopolitical risks such as the Russia - Ukraine and Israel - Palestine conflicts, and the continuous gold purchases by central banks of many countries, precious metal prices may be supported in the medium and long term [1] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Market Data - Gold: Shanghai gold futures' closing price was 856.27 yuan/gram, with a change of 6.69 yuan from the previous day and 31.74 yuan from the previous week. COMEX gold futures' closing price was 3727.50 dollars/ounce, with a change of - 28.40 dollars from the previous day. London gold spot price was 3761.60 dollars/ounce, and SPDR gold ETF holding decreased by 3.72 tons [1] - Silver: Shanghai silver futures' closing price was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram, and the closing price of spot沪银T + D was 9811.00 yuan/ten - gram. COMEX silver futures' closing price was 44.12 dollars/ounce, and London silver spot price was 43.88 dollars/ounce [1] - Other Commodities and Financial Indicators: INE crude oil was 482.30 yuan/barrel, ICE Brent oil was 68.26 dollars/barrel, and NYMEX crude oil was 63.65 dollars/barrel. The dollar index was 97.2351, and major stock indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, S&P 500, and UK FTSE 100 had different changes [1] Important Information - Bessent doesn't understand why Powell "backed down" and urges a 100 - 150 basis - point interest rate cut by the end of the year. He is interviewing 11 candidates for the Fed chair. The US Treasury is preparing to buy Argentine dollar bonds and is discussing a 20 - billion - dollar currency swap line. The US officially announced the implementation of the US - EU trade agreement, reducing the EU car tariff to 15% from August 1st [1] Trading Strategy - Some high - cost long positions should take profits at high prices, and then wait for price pull - backs to establish long positions. For London gold, pay attention to the support level around 3400 - 3500 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 3840 - 4065 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai gold, pay attention to the support level around 800 - 810 yuan/gram and the resistance level around 880 - 930 yuan/gram. For London silver, pay attention to the support level around 39 - 40 dollars/ounce and the resistance level around 45.3 - 47.5 dollars/ounce. For Shanghai silver, pay attention to the support level around 9500 - 9700 yuan/ten - gram and the resistance level around 10500 - 11350 yuan/ten - gram [1]