贵金属数据日报-20250925

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the "Precious Metals Data Daily" released by ITG Guomao Futures on September 25, 2025 [4][5] Group 2: Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core Viewpoints - In the short - term, precious metal prices may fluctuate at high levels, but the long - term bullish view remains unchanged. The market continues to trade the expectation of two more interest rate cuts this year, and the possible government shutdown in the US at the end of the year support precious metal prices. However, the rebound of the US dollar index and the improvement of trade relations put some pressure on precious metal prices. As the National Day holiday approaches, investors are advised to hold light positions to avoid risks [5] - In the medium - to - long - term, the Fed still has room to cut interest rates this year, global geopolitical uncertainties persist, the US debt is unsustainable, and great - power competition intensifies, which will increase the credit risk of the US dollar in the long run. The continuous gold purchases by global central banks will likely push up the medium - to - long - term price center of gold [5] Group 4: Price and Spread Data 1. Spot and Futures Price Tracking - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, London gold spot price rose 0.5% to $3772.46 per ounce, London silver spot price rose 0.8% to $44.08 per ounce. COMEX gold price rose 0.5% to $3805.70 per ounce, and COMEX silver price rose 0.5% to $44.35 per ounce. Domestic gold and silver futures and spot prices also showed varying degrees of increase, with a rise of about 0.5% - 0.6% [5] 2. Spread and Ratio Tracking - From September 23 to September 24, 2025, the spread between gold TD and SHFE active price changed from - 2.02 yuan/gram to - 0.9 yuan/gram, a change of - 55.4%; the spread between silver TD and SHFE active price changed from - 27 yuan/kg to - 24 yuan/kg, a change of - 11.1%. The spread between domestic and foreign gold (TD - London) changed from - 7.29 yuan/gram to - 6.93 yuan/gram, a change of - 4.9%; the spread between domestic and foreign silver (TD - London) changed from - 895 yuan/kg to - 931 yuan/kg, a change of 3.9%. The SHFE gold - silver ratio was 82.68, and the COMEX gold - silver ratio was 85.82, with little change [5] Group 5: Position and Inventory Data 1. Position Data - As of September 23, 2025, compared with September 22, 2025, the position of gold ETF - SPDR remained unchanged at 1000.57 tons, and the position of silver ETF - SLV increased 0.65% to 15469.12379 tons. COMEX gold non - commercial long positions increased 0.59% to 326778 contracts, and non - commercial short positions decreased 4.38% to 60368 contracts. COMEX silver non - commercial long positions decreased 1.14% to 71623 contracts, and non - commercial short positions increased 8.49% to 20085 contracts [5] 2. Inventory Data - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, SHFE gold inventory increased 2.59% to 60543 kg, and SHFE silver inventory increased 1.11% to 1161799 kg. COMEX gold inventory increased 0.16% to 39745191 troy ounces on September 23, 2025, compared with September 22, 2025, and COMEX silver inventory increased 0.45% to 526748211 troy ounces [5] Group 6: Interest Rate, Exchange Rate and Stock Market Data - On September 24, 2025, compared with September 23, 2025, the US dollar/yuan central parity rate rose 0.03% to 7.11. The US dollar index fell 0.08% to 97.24, the 2 - year US Treasury yield fell 2.22% to 3.53%, the 10 - year US Treasury yield fell 0.72% to 4.12%. The VIX index rose 3.35% to 16.64, the S&P 500 index fell 0.55% to 6656.92, and NYMEX crude oil rose 2.10% to $63.65 [5] Group 7: Market Review - On September 24, 2025, the main contract of Shanghai gold futures closed up 1.03% to 860 yuan/gram, and the main contract of Shanghai silver futures closed up 0.83% to 10397 yuan/kg [5]