中辉有色观点-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Gold: Long-term hold, ★★ [1] - Silver: Bullish in the long run, ★★ [1] - Copper: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Zinc: Bearish in the medium to long term, ★ [1] - Lead: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] - Tin: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Aluminum: Rebound, ★★ [1] - Nickel: Short-term rebound, ★ [1] - Industrial Silicon: Bullish in the short term, ★ [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, ★★ [1] - Lithium Carbonate: Rebound under pressure, ★ [1] Core Views - Gold and silver are affected by factors such as the rise of the US dollar index and US bond yields, but the long-term bullish logic remains unchanged due to global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [1][3][4] - Copper prices hit a new high this year due to the mine accident in Indonesia and the tight supply of copper concentrates, and the long-term outlook is positive [5][6][7] - Zinc shows a weak rebound in the short term, and the supply is expected to increase while the demand decreases in the medium to long term [9][10] - Aluminum prices are stabilizing and rebounding, and short-term buying on dips is recommended [11][13][14] - Nickel prices are rebounding in the short term, and short-term long positions on dips are recommended [15][17][18] - Lithium carbonate has a situation of both supply and demand being strong, but the upward driving force is insufficient [19][21][22] Summary by Related Catalogs Gold and Silver - Market Review: The US dollar and US bond yields have risen significantly, leading to a correction in gold prices as some funds leave the market due to profit-taking [2] - Basic Logic: US economic data has unexpectedly improved, there are differences among Fed officials, and the US and the EU have reached a tariff agreement. In the long term, gold will benefit from global monetary easing, the decline of the US dollar credit, and geopolitical restructuring [3] - Strategy Recommendation: The short-term correction of gold does not change the long-term trend. There may be support around 840 for gold and 10000 for silver in the short term. Long-term long positions can continue to be held [4] Copper - Market Review: Shanghai copper and London copper soared by more than 3%, hitting a new high this year [6] - Industrial Logic: The supply of copper concentrates is tight, and the mine accident in Indonesia's Grasberg copper mine is expected to lead to a significant reduction in global copper mine supply. The processing fee of copper concentrates is still deeply inverted, and the domestic electrolytic copper production may decline in September [6] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to hold long positions in copper, gradually take profits on rallies, and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. For the long term, copper is still favored [7] Zinc - Market Review: Shanghai zinc showed a weak rebound, while London zinc oscillated strongly [9] - Industrial Logic: The supply of zinc concentrates is expected to be loose in 2025. Domestic refinery maintenance has increased in September, and zinc ingot production is expected to decrease. The inventory of Shanghai zinc has increased significantly, while the inventory of London zinc has continued to decline. The demand has been affected by the typhoon [9] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take profits on short positions in Shanghai zinc and prepare to hold an empty or light position during the holiday. In the medium to long term, it is recommended to sell on rallies [10] Aluminum - Market Review: Aluminum prices rebounded, and alumina prices stabilized at a low level [12] - Industrial Logic: The production of domestic electrolytic aluminum has continued to increase slightly. The inventory of electrolytic aluminum ingots has increased slightly, while the inventory of aluminum rods has decreased slightly. The demand has shown a slight improvement. The supply of alumina is expected to be loose in the short term [13] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to buy on dips in the short term for Shanghai aluminum, paying attention to the changes in the operating rate of downstream processing enterprises [14] Nickel - Market Review: Nickel prices rebounded, while stainless steel prices faced pressure on the rebound [16] - Industrial Logic: The supply of refined nickel is under pressure, while the supply of nickel sulfate is relatively tight. The inventory of stainless steel has decreased, but the improvement of the peak season needs to be observed [17] - Strategy Recommendation: It is recommended to take short-term long positions on dips for nickel and stainless steel, paying attention to the improvement of downstream consumption [18] Lithium Carbonate - Market Review: The main contract LC2511 opened high and closed low, with a decline at the end of the session [20] - Industrial Logic: The supply has not significantly shrunk, and the demand has received positive support. The total inventory has decreased for six consecutive weeks, and the inventory of smelters is lower than that of last year [21] - Strategy Recommendation: Pay attention to the support around the 60-day moving average [72700 - 74100] [22]