融达期货生猪日报：期价震荡调整-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content 2. Core View of the Report - The report suggests that the price of live pigs will experience a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly. However, the stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may support pig prices to some extent. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year. An 11 - 01 contract reverse spread can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs 3.1 Market Dynamics - On September 24, there were 368 registered live pig warehouse receipts. The short - term spot price has limited room for further decline, and attention should be paid to changes in the live pig slaughter weight. The main live pig contract (LH2511) reduced its position by 2,695 lots today, with a position of approximately 90,800 lots. The highest price today was 12,770 yuan/ton, the lowest was 12,645 yuan/ton, and it closed at 12,730 yuan/ton [2]. 3.2 Fundamental Analysis - From the perspective of the number of breeding sows, the supply of live pigs is expected to increase monthly from March to December, but the increase is limited. According to piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs in the third and fourth quarters of 2025 will generally increase in a fluctuating manner. In terms of the demand side, consumption in the second half of the year is better than that in the first half. Historically, the fat - standard price difference may strengthen in a fluctuating manner. The short - term logic in the market includes concerns about increasing slaughter weight, high subsequent slaughter volume, and limited demand support in September and October. The long - term logic includes the fact that farmers have reduced the weight of pigs, consumption is expected to improve after the weather cools, and the subsequent increase in slaughter volume is limited [3]. 3.3 Strategy Suggestions - The view is a weak and fluctuating adjustment. The core logic is that based on sow and piglet data, the slaughter volume of live pigs may increase monthly until December, making it difficult for pig prices to rise significantly under sufficient supply. The stabilizing and rebounding price difference between 150Kg pigs and standard pigs may weaken farmers' willingness to reduce weight and support pig prices. If the price weakness persists, a negative cycle may form, and if this occurs, the pig price is expected to rise at the end of the year, and an 11 - 01 contract reverse spread can be considered at an appropriate time [4]. 3.4 Market Overview - On September 24, the national average live pig slaughter price was 12.65 yuan/kg, a 0.08% increase from the previous day. The price in Henan was 12.78 yuan/kg, a 0.78% decrease from the previous day. The price in Sichuan remained unchanged at 12.27 yuan/kg. Among futures contracts, the prices of most contracts increased, with the 07 - contract having the largest increase of 1.02%. The main contract basis in Henan decreased by 76.74% to 50 yuan/ton [6]. 3.5 Key Data Tracking - The content provides various data trends, including the closing prices of futures contracts in the past 180 days, the basis of the main live pig contract in Henan, the price difference between the 11 - 01 contracts, and the price difference between the 01 - 03 contracts [14].