英大证券晨会纪要-20250925

Market Overview - The A-share market experienced wide fluctuations, with a significant rebound in the indices on Wednesday, leading to a total trading volume exceeding 2.3 trillion yuan [3][10] - The semiconductor industry chain saw a comprehensive rally, while the new energy sector also became active, indicating a concentration of funds towards technology [3][10] Key Variables for Market Continuation - The sustainability of the market rebound led by semiconductors depends on several key variables: 1. Continuous expansion of trading volume is crucial, with Tuesday's trading volume nearing 2.5 trillion yuan but slightly shrinking on Wednesday [3][11] 2. The performance of leading stocks, particularly a state-owned enterprise in the semiconductor sector, significantly influences market sentiment [3][11] 3. The implementation of supportive policies for the semiconductor industry will directly affect the pace of domestic substitution and the overall industry fundamentals [3][11] Sector Analysis Semiconductor Sector - The semiconductor sector has shown strong performance, with a year-on-year increase of 10.10% in 2023 despite a weak overall market [7] - National policies are supportive, with the establishment of the third phase of the National Integrated Circuit Industry Investment Fund, which promotes upgrades across the semiconductor industry chain [7] - The global semiconductor market is expected to grow by over 15% in 2025, driven by rising demand for AI and high-performance computing [7] New Energy Sector - Stocks in the new energy sector, including energy metals and photovoltaic equipment, have seen significant gains, supported by recent government initiatives aimed at optimizing industry layout and promoting quality management [8][9] - The new energy sector is expected to continue benefiting from the global push towards carbon neutrality, with ongoing demand for lithium batteries, photovoltaics, and energy storage [9] Real Estate Sector - The real estate sector has rebounded, aided by new policies in major cities that enhance market conditions for homebuyers [10] - The industry is transitioning from individual case breakthroughs to a model of replication, which is expected to facilitate risk clearance and a healthy cycle within the sector [10] Investment Strategy - The report suggests a strategic approach to investing, focusing on high-quality companies with clear industry prospects while reducing exposure to overvalued sectors [12] - Maintaining flexible capital reserves is recommended to adapt to market changes effectively [12]