Report Industry Investment Ratings - Crude Oil: Cautiously bearish [1] - LPG: Cautiously bearish [1] - L: Bearish rebound [1] - PP: Bearish rebound [1] - PVC: Low-level oscillation [1] - PX: Cautiously bullish [1] - PTA: Cautiously bullish [2] - Ethylene Glycol: Cautiously bearish [2] - Methanol: Cautiously bullish [2] - Urea: Cautiously bearish [2] - Natural Gas: Cautiously bearish [4] - Asphalt: Cautiously bearish [4] - Glass: Bearish rebound [4] - Soda Ash: Bearish rebound [4] Core Views - Crude Oil: Geopolitical disturbances lead to a short - term oil price rebound, but the supply - surplus situation remains unchanged. The price may decline to around $60 in the medium - to - long term [1][6]. - LPG: The cost - end oil price rebounds briefly, but the supply - surplus pressure increases. The price center is expected to continue to move down [1]. - L: It rebounds following the cost in the short term. The fundamentals show strong supply and demand, and attention should be paid to inventory reduction [1]. - PP: The cost support improves, and the price stops falling and rebounds. The supply pressure is expected to ease, and the demand is entering the peak season [1]. - PVC: It rebounds due to the anti - involution sentiment in the glass industry. The price is at a low level with strong exports, but the fundamentals are supply - strong and demand - weak [1]. - PX: The supply - demand tight balance is expected to ease. The inventory is still relatively high, and it is expected to oscillate weakly [30]. - PTA: The supply - side pressure is expected to ease, but the "Golden September and Silver October" consumption season is underperforming. The demand is weak, and the price is expected to be weakly oscillating [34]. - Ethylene Glycol: The domestic device slightly increases its load, and the overseas devices change little. The consumption season is underperforming, and it is bearish with caution [39]. - Methanol: The supply - side pressure remains large, but the demand improves. The cost support stabilizes, and the downside space is limited [42]. - Urea: The supply is relatively loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad. The inventory is accumulating, and the price is weakly oscillating [47]. - Natural Gas: The U.S. natural gas inventory accumulates more than expected, causing the price to weaken, but the demand for winter storage provides some support [4]. - Asphalt: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases, so the price is under pressure [4]. - Glass: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4]. - Soda Ash: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose, and it is bearish in the medium - to - long term [4] Summaries by Variety Crude Oil - Market Performance: Overnight international oil prices rebounded. WTI rose 2.49%, Brent rose 2.22%, and SC rose 1.47% [5] - Fundamentals: Supply - the oil export of the Iraq Kurdistan region to Turkey has not restarted; demand - OPEC predicts stable growth in global oil demand; inventory - U.S. commercial crude inventory decreased [7] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [475 - 490] for SC [8] LPG - Market Performance: On September 23, the PG main contract closed at 4,254 yuan/ton, up 0.16% [9] - Fundamentals: The cost - end has short - term support, but the long - term trend is downward. The demand is weakening, and the supply and inventory are increasing [11] - Strategy: Hold short positions. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,300] for PG [12] L - Market Performance: The L2601 contract closed at 7,142 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [15] - Fundamentals: It rebounds following the cost. The supply is expected to increase, and the demand is supported by the peak season of agricultural films [17] - Strategy: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [7,100 - 7,250] for L [17] PP - Market Performance: The PP2601 contract closed at 6,877 yuan/ton, up 0.5% [20] - Fundamentals: The cost support improves, the supply pressure eases, and the demand enters the peak season [22] - Strategy: Industries can hedge at high prices. Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [6,830 - 6,950] for PP [22] PVC - Market Performance: The V2601 contract closed at 4,919 yuan/ton, up 0.6% [25] - Fundamentals: It rebounds due to the glass industry. The price is low with strong exports, but the supply is strong and the demand is weak [27] - Strategy: Try to go long on dips. Focus on the range of [4,800 - 5,000] for V [27] PX - Market Performance: On September 19, the PX spot price was 6,773 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [29] - Fundamentals: The supply - side devices change little, the demand - side PTA may have more maintenance in the later period, and the supply - demand balance is expected to ease [30] - Strategy: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds and buy call options. Focus on the range of [6,575 - 6,665] for PX511 [31] PTA - Market Performance: On September 19, the PTA spot price in East China was 4,555 yuan/ton, down 71 yuan/ton [32] - Fundamentals: The supply - side pressure may ease, the "Golden September and Silver October" is underperforming, and the demand is weak [34] - Strategy: Stop losses on short positions. Look for opportunities to short at high prices and buy call options [34] Ethylene Glycol - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of ethylene glycol in East China was 4,352 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan/ton [38] - Fundamentals: The domestic device slightly increases its load, the overseas devices change little, and the consumption season is underperforming [39] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to short on rebounds. Focus on the range of [4,200 - 4,250] for EG01 [40] Methanol - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of methanol in East China was 2,299 yuan/ton, down 2 yuan/ton [41] - Fundamentals: The supply - side pressure is large, but the demand improves, and the cost support stabilizes [42] - Strategy: Look for opportunities to go long on the 01 contract at low prices. Focus on the range of [2,345 - 2,375] for MA01 [44] Urea - Market Performance: On September 19, the spot price of small - particle urea in Shandong was 1,640 yuan/ton, and the main contract closed at 1,661 yuan/ton, down 9 yuan/ton [45] - Fundamentals: The supply is loose, the demand is weak at home and strong abroad, and the inventory is accumulating [47] - Strategy: Hold short positions carefully. Look for opportunities to go long on dips [48] Natural Gas - Market Performance: As of the week ending September 12, the U.S. natural gas inventory increased by 90 billion cubic feet to 2,433 billion cubic feet [4] - Fundamentals: The inventory accumulates more than expected, the price weakens, but the demand for winter storage provides support [4] Asphalt - Market Performance: Not provided in the given text - Fundamentals: The cost - end oil price is weak, the demand is affected by the weather, and the supply pressure increases [4] - Strategy: Hold short positions [4] Glass - Market Performance: Not provided in the given text - Fundamentals: It may be sorted at a high level in the short term. The supply is under pressure, and the demand from the real - estate completion area is weak [4] - Strategy: Observe in the short term and be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4] Soda Ash - Market Performance: Not provided in the given text - Fundamentals: It rebounds following the glass. The supply is expected to be loose [4] - Strategy: Be bearish on rebounds in the medium - to - long term [4]
中辉能化观点-20250925
Zhong Hui Qi Huo·2025-09-25 03:19