Report Industry Investment Ratings - Macro Finance: Long-term bullish on stock indices, hold a wait-and-see attitude towards government bonds [1][5] - Black Building Materials: Adopt range trading for coking coal and rebar, and go long on glass at low prices [1][7][8] - Non-ferrous Metals: Wait and see or go long on copper at low prices for short-term trading; wait for a pullback to go long on aluminum; wait and see or go short on nickel at high prices; conduct range trading for tin, gold, and silver [1][10][11][16] - Energy and Chemicals: PVC, caustic soda, styrene, rubber, urea, and methanol are expected to fluctuate; conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage for soda ash; polyolefins are expected to have wide-range fluctuations [1][20][22][24][28][31] - Cotton Textile Industry Chain: Cotton and cotton yarn are expected to fluctuate; PTA is expected to fluctuate within a range; apples are expected to fluctuate strongly; jujubes are expected to fluctuate weakly [1][33][35] - Agriculture and Animal Husbandry: Go short on pigs and eggs at high prices; corn is expected to have wide-range fluctuations; soybean meal is expected to have range fluctuations; oils are expected to fluctuate strongly [1][37][40][41][43][45] Core Views The report provides investment strategies and market analyses for various futures products across different industries. It takes into account factors such as supply and demand, cost, macroeconomic policies, and international events to assess the market trends of each product and offer corresponding trading suggestions. Summary by Industry Macro Finance - Stock Indices: The A-share market showed a trend of opening low and closing high on Wednesday. Driven by multiple positive news in the chip industry, the technology growth sector rebounded strongly. It is recommended to go long at low prices in the long term [5] - Government Bonds: The bond market continued its downward trend on Wednesday, with the focus of the decline shifting from active bonds to non-active bonds and credit bonds. It is advisable to maintain a wait-and-see attitude due to potential negative feedback from selling and redemptions [5] Black Building Materials - Double Coking Coal: Multiple factors have boosted market sentiment, leading to a "Golden September" in the coal industry. Coal prices have risen across the board, and the sales of surrounding coal yards are active. It is recommended to conduct range trading [7] - Rebar: The rebar futures price fluctuated on Wednesday. The static valuation has slightly increased, but the demand is still weak year-on-year. It is advisable to go long on dips, focusing on the 3100 - 3250 range for the RB2601 contract [7] - Glass: The spot prices of major glass manufacturers have increased, and the market sentiment has improved. The fundamentals are neither good nor bad, with weak support from demand in the peak season and potential positive factors from macro news and environmental policies. It is recommended to maintain a long position in the 01 contract [8] Non-ferrous Metals - Copper: The copper mine supply has been disrupted, and the consumption is expected to gradually recover during the pre-holiday stocking period. The copper price is expected to remain high before the holiday, and it is recommended to wait and see or go long at low prices for short-term trading [10][11] - Aluminum: The price of bauxite has declined, while the production of alumina and electrolytic aluminum has increased. The demand has entered the peak season, but the inventory is still accumulating. It is recommended to go long at low prices and consider a long AD and short AL arbitrage strategy [11] - Nickel: The price of nickel ore remains firm, while the refined nickel is in an oversupply situation. The price of nickel iron has slowed down, and the stainless steel price is weak. It is recommended to go short moderately at high prices [16] - Tin: The supply of tin ore is tight, and the downstream consumption is recovering. The tin price is expected to be supported, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 26.5 - 280,000 yuan/ton range for the Shanghai Tin 10 contract [16] - Silver and Gold: The Fed's interest rate cut has been implemented, and the market expects further rate cuts. The prices of silver and gold are expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to conduct range trading, referring to the 9800 - 10500 range for the Shanghai Silver 12 contract and the 820 - 855 range for the Shanghai Gold 12 contract [17] Energy and Chemicals - PVC: The cost is at a low level, the supply is high, and the demand is weak. The inventory is high, and the export sustainability is uncertain. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 4850 - 5050 range [20] - Caustic Soda: The macro outlook is positive, but the weak reality is suppressing the market. It is expected to fluctuate, with the 01 contract temporarily focusing on the 2450 - 2650 range [22] - Styrene: The cost and supply are under pressure, and the demand is limited. It is expected to fluctuate weakly, temporarily focusing on the 6700 - 7100 range [24] - Rubber: The raw material price is firm, and the downstream demand is stable. However, the market is affected by pre-holiday risk aversion and potential reserve releases. It is expected to fluctuate in the short term, with the 15500 level as the support [26] - Urea: The supply has increased, the agricultural demand is scattered, and the inventory is accumulating. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 1600 - 1630 for the 01 contract and the positive arbitrage opportunity after the 1 - 5 spread weakens further [27] - Methanol: The supply has decreased, and the demand from the methanol-to-olefins industry has increased. The inventory is high, and it is expected to fluctuate weakly, with the 01 contract focusing on the 2330 - 2450 range [28] - Polyolefins: The supply of polyethylene has increased, while the supply of polypropylene has decreased. The demand has improved, and the inventory has decreased. It is expected to fluctuate in the low range, with the L2601 contract focusing on the 7100 - 7500 range and the PP2601 contract focusing on the 6800 - 7200 range [28][29] - Soda Ash: The spot market is still weak, but the futures price has risen due to the increase in glass prices. It is recommended to conduct a short 01 and long 05 arbitrage [31] Cotton Textile Industry Chain - Cotton and Cotton Yarn: The global cotton supply and demand situation has improved, but the new cotton production is expected to increase significantly. It is recommended to prepare for hedging [33] - PTA: The international oil price has risen, and the supply and demand are expected to decrease. It is expected to fluctuate within the 4550 - 4800 range [33][34] - Apples: The prices of early-maturing apples are firm, and the late Fuji apples are starting to be bagged. It is expected to maintain a strong trend [35] - Jujubes: The Xinjiang jujubes are entering the sugar-accumulating stage, and the consumption is weak. It is expected to fluctuate weakly [35] Agriculture and Animal Husbandry - Pigs: The pig price is under pressure due to the increase in supply and the high weight. It is recommended to take profit on short positions in the 11, 01, and 03 contracts, go short on rebounds, and pay attention to the long 05 and short 03 arbitrage [37][38] - Eggs: The short-term pre-holiday demand is weakening, and the long-term supply pressure is still large. It is recommended to go short at high prices or hold put options, and be cautious about shorting in the 12 and 01 contracts in the short term [39][40] - Corn: The new corn supply will ease the tight supply of the old corn. It is recommended to take a bearish view, wait for a rebound to go short lightly, and pay attention to the 1 - 5 reverse arbitrage [41][43] - Soybean Meal: The price is under pressure in the short term due to the cancellation of Argentina's export tariffs, but the downside space is limited due to the low US soybean stock-to-use ratio and cost support. It is recommended to pay attention to the support at 2930 for the M2601 contract [43][44][45] - Oils: The market is expected to bottom out and rebound slightly after digesting the impact of Argentina's cancellation of export tariffs. It is recommended to wait and see in the short term, control positions, and pay attention to the positive arbitrage opportunities for rapeseed oil 11 - 1, 1 - 5, and the rapeseed - palm oil price spread [45][47][51]
期货市场交易指引：2025年09月25日-20250925
Chang Jiang Qi Huo·2025-09-25 03:38