美国政府停摆：可能性与市场影响：《大国博弈》系列第八十九篇

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the report indicates that as the new fiscal year approaches, the risk of a U.S. government shutdown is increasing, with market expectations of a shutdown probability nearing 80% [1][6][8] - The report highlights that if the government shuts down, economic data will be suspended, complicating Federal Reserve decision-making, and the likelihood of a gradual interest rate cut path may increase [2][11][12] - The report notes that the two parties in Congress are deeply divided over the new funding bill, with the Democrats seeking to restore nearly $1 trillion in medical assistance cuts, while Republicans aim to maintain spending cuts from the tax reform [4][5][6] Group 2 - The report states that historically, government shutdowns have occurred 15 times since 1980, with durations ranging from one day to several weeks, impacting economic indicators and market performance [9][10] - It is mentioned that during a government shutdown, GDP growth is expected to slow by approximately 1 percentage point, but will rebound quickly once the shutdown is resolved [11][13][14] - The report indicates that during shutdowns, U.S. stock market returns typically decline, while gold prices tend to rise, especially if the shutdown lasts longer [15][16][17]