Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose, and the term spread widened. The central bank conducted a total of 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank capital prices increased. The primary issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan [1]. - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the credit bond issuance volume increased month - on - month. The primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. The credit bond yields mostly rose [2]. - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose, European stock indexes were divided, most US Treasury yields increased, the US dollar index strengthened, most non - US currencies weakened, crude oil prices fell, and gold prices rose [3]. Summary by Directory 1. Interest - rate Bonds: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened 1.1 Liquidity Observation: Net Liquidity Injection, Rising Capital Prices - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the central bank conducted 22,068.00 billion yuan in reverse repurchase operations, with a net injection of 6,340.00 billion yuan. Inter - bank and exchange capital prices increased. For example, DR001 rose 9.98BP to 1.4644%, and GC001 rose 5.90BP to 1.4110% [15]. 1.2 Primary Market Issuance: Increased Net Financing, Decreased Local Government Bond Issuance - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issuance of interest - rate bonds was 6,645.39 billion yuan, and the net financing was 4,664.25 billion yuan. The issuance of local government bonds decreased compared with the previous period [27]. 1.3 Secondary Market Trading: Most Treasury Bond Yields Rose, and the Term Spread Widened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most treasury bond yields rose. The 1 - year yield decreased 1.00BP to 1.3900%, while the 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year yields rose 1.51BP, 0.47BP, 4.89BP, and 1.19BP respectively. The 10Y - 1Y term spread widened from 46.70BP to 48.89BP. The yields of China Development Bank bonds were divided, and the 10Y - 1Y term spread narrowed from 45.04BP to 40.04BP [32]. 2. Credit Bonds: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose 2.1 Primary Market Issuance: Issuance Volume Increased Month - on - Month - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, the primary market issued 1,231 new credit bonds, with a total issuance scale of 16,911.73 billion yuan, a month - on - month increase of 4,522.11 billion yuan. The net financing was 3,938.10 billion yuan. Asset - backed securities had the largest number of issuances, and financial bonds had the highest issuance amount. AAA - rated bonds accounted for 71.79% of the total issuance. The issuance was mainly in the 3 - 5 - year term, and the financial industry had the largest number of issuances [45]. 2.2 Secondary Market Trading: Most Credit Bond Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, most urban investment bond yields rose, with the 7 - year AAA and AA - rated bonds having the largest increase of 4.50BP. Most medium - and short - term note yields rose, with the 5 - year AAA - rated note having the largest increase of 5.01BP [55]. 2.3 One - Week Credit Default Event Review - From September 15 to September 21, 2025, one enterprise's credit bonds defaulted [56]. 3. Weekly Observation of Major Asset Classes 3.1 European and American Stock Indexes Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the three major US stock indexes rose. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 1.05%, the S&P 500 Index rose 1.22%, and the Nasdaq Composite Index rose 2.21%. European stock indexes were divided, with the German DAX Index falling 0.25%, the French CAC40 Index rising 0.36%, and the UK FTSE 100 Index falling 0.72%. Asian - Pacific stock indexes rose and fell unevenly [58]. 3.2 Most US Treasury Yields Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the yields of 3 - year, 5 - year, 7 - year, and 10 - year US Treasury bonds rose 4.00BP, 5.00BP, 7.00BP, and 8.00BP respectively, while the 1 - year yield decreased 6.00BP. The 10Y - 1Y term spread changed by 14.00BP to 54.00BP [60]. 3.3 The US Dollar Index Strengthened, and Most Non - US Currencies Weakened - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, the US dollar index rose 0.30%. Most non - US currencies weakened. For example, the British pound against the US dollar fell 0.64%, and the US dollar against the Japanese yen rose 0.21% [64]. 3.4 Crude Oil Prices Fell, and Gold Prices Rose - From September 12 to September 19, 2025, COMEX gold futures prices rose 1.09%, and London spot gold prices rose 0.33%. Brent crude oil prices fell 0.46%, and WTI crude oil prices fell 0.02% [66]. 4. Investment Recommendations - As the cross - quarter capital demand increases near the end of the quarter, the central bank adjusts the 14 - day reverse repurchase operations to relieve liquidity pressure. In the short term, it may boost the bond market sentiment and push down interest rates. In the medium and long term, it can enhance the stability of the bond market. It is expected that the bond market will remain volatile in the fourth quarter. Interest - rate bonds should mainly be traded in bands, and credit bonds should focus on urban investment bonds and leading industrial bonds [4][70].
固收周报：四季度债市或呈现震荡格局-20250925
Yong Xing Zheng Quan·2025-09-25 04:08