中辉期货热卷早报-20250925

Report Industry Investment Ratings - Cautiously Bearish: Steel (including rebar and hot-rolled coil), coke, coking coal, ferromanganese, and ferrosilicon [1] - Long Position Holding: Iron ore [1] Core Views of the Report - Steel: After the macro sentiment cools down, it will operate within a range. The downstream demand for construction steel has not improved significantly, and the real estate and infrastructure sectors still act as a drag. The overall demand for steel is weak, and there is a lack of upward driving force on the supply and demand side [3][5] - Iron Ore: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [1][8] - Coke: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [1][12] - Coking Coal: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [1][16] - Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit. After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [1][20][21] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Steel - Variety Views: The apparent demand for rebar has improved month-on-month, production has decreased slightly, and inventory has begun to decline, but the destocking speed remains to be observed. The apparent demand for hot-rolled coil has declined, and production and inventory have increased slightly, with relatively stable supply and demand [4] - Disk Operation Suggestions: Due to limited supply and demand driving forces and the cooling of macro sentiment, both rebar and hot-rolled coil will operate within a range [5] - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of rebar and hot-rolled coil futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [2] Iron Ore - Variety Views: The fundamentals are strong due to the increase in molten iron production, the reduction in supply, and the pre-National Day restocking by steel mills [8] - Disk Operation Suggestions: Hold long positions [9] - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of iron ore futures, spot, basis, and spreads are provided [6] Coke - Variety Views: It has initiated the first round of price hikes, but they have not been implemented yet. The coking enterprise profit is acceptable, and production is relatively stable. The supply and demand are relatively balanced, and it will operate within a range following coking coal [12] - Disk Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bearish [13] - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coke futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [11] Coking Coal - Variety Views: The domestic production continues to recover, and the supply margin has improved. The short-term supply and demand contradiction is not significant, but the supply-side policy may cause disturbances in the later stage, and it will operate within a range [16] - Disk Operation Suggestions: Cautiously bearish [17] - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of coking coal futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [15] Ferromanganese and Ferrosilicon - Variety Views: The fundamentals of ferromanganese tend to be loose, and there may be difficulties in subsequent destocking in the production areas. The supply and demand contradiction of ferrosilicon is not prominent, but the high absolute value of warehouse receipts suppresses the upward price limit [20] - Disk Operation Suggestions: After the rapid release of the previous downward sentiment, the market may fluctuate, and it is advisable to wait and see [21] - Price Information: The latest prices and price changes of ferromanganese and ferrosilicon futures, spot, basis, and spreads, as well as weekly production, inventory, and profit data are provided [19]