从美国库存看中国出口机遇：科技出海创新高，制造消费能否跟上？

Group 1 - The report highlights that the Federal Reserve's resumption of the interest rate cut cycle may stimulate a recovery in U.S. demand, which could lead to increased exports from China, particularly in the manufacturing and consumer sectors [2][6][18] - As of June 2025, U.S. nominal and real inventory growth rates have shown a downward trend, indicating a tightening inventory level relative to sales, suggesting potential replenishment demand in the future [2][7][33] - The report identifies that certain sectors, such as home appliances, machinery, automotive, and light industry, are experiencing significant inventory reduction, making them key areas for market focus [2][8][51] Group 2 - The technology export index has reached a new high, driven by strong capital expenditure growth in U.S. tech stocks related to AI, while the manufacturing and consumer export indices have lagged due to weak demand in traditional economic sectors [5][15] - The report notes that the U.S. manufacturing PMI's recovery is typically a leading indicator for China's intermediate and capital goods exports, suggesting that a rebound in U.S. manufacturing could positively impact Chinese exports [6][18][29] - The report emphasizes that sectors with historically low inventory levels, such as home appliances, machinery, automotive, and light industry, are expected to see greater demand as they enter a replenishment phase [8][47][51]