United States Antimony (US:UAMY) EBSCN·2025-09-25 05:09Investment Rating - The report maintains an "Overweight" rating for the non-ferrous metals sector [6]. Core Insights - The strategic value of antimony has been highlighted by the recent exclusive five-year contract awarded to U.S. Antimony Corporation by the U.S. Department of Defense, with a maximum supply value of $245 million for antimony metal ingots [1][2]. - The contract reflects U.S. concerns over supply chain security for antimony, which is recognized as a critical mineral by multiple countries, including the U.S., EU, and Japan [2]. - Antimony prices experienced significant fluctuations in 2025, with a peak price of 240,000 CNY/ton in April, followed by a decline to 176,000 CNY/ton by September [3][4]. Summary by Sections Antimony Market Dynamics - Antimony prices rose sharply from February to April 2025, increasing by 68% due to low inventory, difficult raw material replenishment, and positive market sentiment, driven by demand from the photovoltaic sector [3]. - A subsequent price correction occurred from April to September 2025, attributed to high prices leading to negative feedback on demand and government policies targeting smuggling, which significantly reduced antimony oxide exports [3][4]. Export Trends and Future Outlook - In 2023, China's antimony export volume accounted for 35% of its production, with a notable decline in exports during the first half of 2025 due to government crackdowns on smuggling [4]. - Recent statements from the Ministry of Commerce indicate a potential recovery in antimony exports, which could lead to an upward adjustment in domestic antimony prices [4]. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for domestic antimony prices in the medium to long term, given the limited supply increase and the anticipated recovery of compliant antimony exports [4]. - Key companies to watch include Hunan Gold, Huaxi Nonferrous, and Huayu Mining, with projected earnings per share (EPS) and price-to-earnings (PE) ratios indicating potential investment opportunities [5].