Report Industry Investment Ratings - Not provided in the given content Core Views of the Report - The stock index is expected to rise in the long - term, but the probability of a unilateral upward pattern in the market before the National Day holiday is low, and it is recommended to control positions [1] - Different varieties in various industries such as macro - finance, non - ferrous metals, black metals, agricultural products, energy chemicals, and others have different trends including oscillation, bullish, and bearish trends, with corresponding influencing factors and operation suggestions [1] Summary by Related Catalogs Macro - finance - Stock index: Long - term bullish, low probability of unilateral rise before National Day, control positions [1] - Treasury bonds: Oscillation, asset shortage and weak economy benefit bond futures, but short - term central bank interest - rate risk warning restricts upward space [1] - Gold: Oscillation, short - term high - level strong oscillation, beware of increased volatility before National Day [1] - Silver: Oscillation, expected to oscillate before National Day [1] Non - ferrous metals - Copper: Expected to rise further due to concerns about supply shortage caused by Freeport's news of production cut at the Indonesian Grasberg mine [1] - Aluminum: Pressured in the short - term as bulls take profits after the Fed's rate - cut decision, but limited downside due to the approaching consumption peak season [1] - Alumina: Fundamentals are weak with increasing production and inventory, but limited downside as the price approaches the cost line [1] - Zinc: Fundamental outlook improves as the production delay at Huoshaoyun reduces the expected increase this year, but high social inventory pressures the price [1] - Nickel: Short - term oscillation with a slightly bullish trend, pay attention to supply and macro changes, suggest short - term low - buying operations and light positions for the holiday, long - term surplus of primary nickel remains a constraint [1] - Stainless steel: Oscillation, pay attention to the progress of Indonesian nickel - ore quota approval, raw material support exists, suggest short - term operations, light positions for the holiday, and wait for high - selling hedging opportunities [1] - Tin: There is an expectation of improvement in the demand peak season, pay attention to low - buying opportunities [1] - Industrial silicon: Oscillation, affected by supply resumption in the southwest and northwest, polysilicon production - cut expectation, and market sentiment [1] - Polysilicon: Bullish, with long - term capacity reduction expectation, increased silicon - wafer production, and unfulfilled anti - involution policy expectation [1] - Lithium carbonate: Bullish, driven by the approaching traditional peak season of new energy vehicles, strong energy - storage demand, and continuous inventory reduction [1] Black metals - Rebar and hot - rolled coil: Oscillation, valuation returns to neutral, unclear industrial drive, positive macro drive [1] - Iron ore: Oscillation, near - month contracts are restricted by production cuts, but there is an upward opportunity for far - month contracts due to positive commodity sentiment [1] - Coking coal: Oscillation, after a sharp correction, supported by pre - holiday restocking and macro - easing, but limited upward space, suggest reducing long positions [1] - Coke: Oscillation, similar logic to coking coal [1] - Sintered ore fines, pellets, and lump ore: Oscillation, short - term fundamentals are not optimistic, supply recovers while demand may weaken, high inventory [1] - Slag wool: Oscillation, supply surplus pressure exists, marginal improvement in peak - season demand, price is pressured [1] - Soda ash: Oscillation, weak reality, large supply - surplus pressure, price is pressured [1] Agricultural products - Cotton: Short - term wide - range oscillation, long - term pressure with the arrival of new cotton [1] - Raw sugar: Oscillation, high sugar - production ratio may be adjusted down, price rebounds but limited upside due to supply surplus, suggest short - selling at high levels [1] - Corn: Bearish, short - term C01 remains bearish under the expectation of new - grain selling pressure, pay attention to weather changes [1] - Soybean meal: Oscillation, short - term MO1 is expected to oscillate, pay attention to changes in the CNF spread [1] - Pulp: Oscillation, bottom range is emerging, but no significant bullish driver yet, focus on the cancellation volume of warehouse receipts after September delivery [1] - Log: Oscillation, no significant change in fundamentals, lower foreign - market quotes, firm spot price [1] - Live pigs: Bearish, increasing supply, limited downstream demand, futures price is higher than the spot price [1] Energy chemicals - Crude oil: Oscillation, affected by US inventory decline, OPEC+ second - round production increase plan, and the Fed's rate cut [1] - Fuel oil: Oscillation, similar factors as crude oil [1] - Asphalt: Oscillation, short - term following crude oil, the expectation of "14th Five - Year Plan" construction demand may be falsified, sufficient supply of Ma瑞 crude oil [1] - Natural rubber: Oscillation, affected by typhoon in South China, inventory decline, and reduced warehouse receipts [1] - BR rubber: Oscillation, continuous production increase by OPEC, loose supply of synthetic rubber, reduced downstream transactions, pay attention to capital flow [1] - PTA: Bearish, domestic production recovery, falling crude - oil price, extended PX maintenance, and improved polyester profit [1] - Ethylene glycol: Oscillation, strengthening basis, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, reduced overseas arrivals but increased hedging [1] - Short - fiber: Oscillation, factory device recovery, weakened willingness to deliver warehouse receipts [1] - Styrene: Bearish, continuous inventory accumulation, increased supply after maintenance, upcoming commissioning of Yulong Petrochemical's device, and increased domestic pure - benzene import pressure [1] - Urea: Oscillation, limited upside due to weak export and domestic demand, supported by anti - involution and cost [1] - PF: Oscillation, with a slightly bullish trend, rising crude - oil price, more maintenance, and slowly increasing downstream demand [1] - PP: Oscillation, weakening support from maintenance, less - than - expected downstream improvement, returning to fundamentals [1] - PVC: Oscillation, weakening due to reduced maintenance, large supply pressure, and many near - month warehouse receipts [1] - ABS: Bearish, unfulfilled peak - season expectation, inventory accumulation, and falling spot price [1] - LPG: Bearish, restricted by OPEC production increase, high domestic crude - oil inventory, weak chemical demand, and the Fed's rate cut [1] Other - Container shipping to Europe: There is a possibility of a low - level rebound, entering the contract - changing period, and expected to stop falling as the freight rate approaches the full - cost line [1]
日度策略参考-20250925
Guo Mao Qi Huo·2025-09-25 05:07