PVC 供应压力增加

Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant information provided Core Viewpoints - The current PVC market has a weak fundamental situation. With the release of new production capacity and high industry operating rates, supply pressure continues to increase. Given the downturn in the real estate industry and the slowdown in exports, demand is unlikely to exceed expectations. Although there may be a seasonal maintenance peak in October leading to a temporary tightening of supply, if demand does not improve simultaneously, the inventory reduction speed will remain slow. It is expected that the 2601 contract will fluctuate weakly in the future [2][3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs PVC Supply Pressure - The PVC market has entered the traditional peak season, but factors such as weak demand and increased supply have put continuous pressure on futures prices, resulting in a "peak season without prosperity" situation. The trading logic in the PVC futures market has returned to fundamentals. Although short - term supply has decreased slightly, downstream demand remains weak, and the overall fundamentals are weak [2] - In 2025, new PVC production capacity has been continuously put into operation, increasing supply pressure. New devices of Fujian Wanhua and Tianjin Bohua Development have been put into operation in recent months, bringing significant supply increments. Although some devices of Henan Yuhang and Heilongjiang Haohua were shut down for maintenance in September, and some devices of Shaanxi Beiyuan, Gansu Jinchuan, and Xinjiang Zhongtai Shengxiong continued to be under maintenance, the industry operating rate is expected to increase slightly month - on - month and remain at a relatively high level in recent years. This means that short - term supply reduction is completely offset by long - term supply increment, and market supply pressure has increased [2] Cost Support - The production cost of calcium carbide - based PVC in China is mainly affected by calcium carbide prices. Recently, the domestic calcium carbide market has recovered, and prices have risen slightly, providing phased support for PVC costs. As of the week of September 19, due to the increase in the purchase price of raw material calcium carbide, the weekly average production cost of national calcium carbide - based PVC enterprises was 5132 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 2.41%. Meanwhile, affected by the increase in ethylene prices, the production cost of ethylene - based PVC in China has also slightly increased. As of the week of September 19, the weekly average production cost of national ethylene - based PVC enterprises was 5617 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 0.018%. Although the increase in calcium carbide and ethylene prices has provided some support for PVC futures prices, it is difficult to drive prices to rise significantly [2] Supply and Inventory - Supply surplus has led to continuous accumulation of social inventory. As of the week of September 19, the domestic PVC industry inventory was 1.3005 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.11%, with 12 consecutive weeks of inventory accumulation; the PVC social inventory was 953,700 tons, a month - on - month increase of 2.03% and a year - on - year increase of 11.76% [3] Demand Pressure - In terms of domestic demand, the real estate industry, as the largest end - consumption area of PVC, has been in a continuous downturn, seriously dragging down the demand recovery progress. From January to August 2025, the year - on - year decline of domestic housing construction area, new construction area, and completion area was in double - digits. In September, although the operating rate of PVC downstream enterprises has increased, the overall order situation is still average, and end - users mainly purchase at low prices, resulting in a dull market trading atmosphere [3] - In terms of export demand, affected by India's anti - dumping tax, some enterprises have "rushed to export", overdrafting part of the demand. In September, the export pace has significantly slowed down, and the order increment is limited. Although domestic enterprises are actively exploring emerging markets such as Africa and Southeast Asia, it is difficult to form a stable demand increment in the short term due to multiple factors. Overall, the supporting effect of exports on PVC prices has weakened [3] Market Outlook - Currently, the PVC market fundamentals are weak. With new production capacity coming on stream and high industry operating rates, supply pressure keeps rising. Given the real - estate slump and slower exports, demand won't likely outperform. Despite a possible seasonal maintenance peak in October that may tighten supply temporarily, if demand doesn't improve in tandem, inventory drawdown will remain slow. The 2601 contract is expected to trade in a weak, sideways pattern [4]