光大期货碳酸锂日报-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - Yesterday, the main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. The average price of battery - grade lithium carbonate remained at 73,850 yuan/ton, the average price of industrial - grade lithium carbonate remained at 71,600 yuan/ton, and the price of battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) fell 50 yuan/ton to 74,080 yuan/ton. The warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons to 39,749 tons [3]. - On the supply side, the weekly output increased by 400 tons to 20,363 tons. In terms of imports in August 2025, the import volume of spodumene was 619,200 tons, a 17.5% month - on - month decrease; the import volume of lithium carbonate was 21,800 tons, a 57.8% month - on - month and 23.5% year - on - year increase, and the export volume was 369 tons, a 0.7% month - on - month and 57% year - on - year increase. On the demand side, the weekly output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased, while the weekly inventory of ternary materials decreased and that of lithium iron phosphate increased. On the inventory side, the weekly inventory decreased by 981 tons to 137,531 tons, mainly due to downstream restocking [3]. - As the National Day approaches, with the peak demand season, lithium carbonate destocking, and firm lithium ore prices, the price is still supported. However, the pre - holiday stocking demand may gradually weaken, and there is an expectation of project复产 after the holiday, but there is still some uncertainty, so position management is necessary [3]. 3. Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Research Views - Futures, spot, and warehouse receipt data: The main contract of lithium carbonate futures dropped 0.79% to 72,880 yuan/ton. Battery - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, industrial - grade lithium carbonate average price remained stable, and battery - grade lithium hydroxide (coarse particles) price decreased. Warehouse receipt inventory increased by 300 tons [3]. - Supply, demand, and inventory data: Supply - side weekly output increased by 400 tons. Import data showed changes in spodumene and lithium carbonate. Demand - side output of ternary materials and lithium iron phosphate increased with different inventory changes. Inventory decreased by 981 tons with downstream restocking [3]. - Price outlook: Near the National Day, price is supported, but pre - holiday demand may weaken, and post - holiday project复产 has uncertainty [3]. 3.2 Daily Data Monitoring - Lithium - battery industry chain product prices: Most products showed price changes, such as the main and continuous contracts of futures, lithium ore, lithium carbonate, and other products. For example, the main contract of futures dropped 780 yuan/ton, and lithium ore prices generally decreased [5]. 3.3 Chart Analysis - Ore prices: Charts show the price trends of spodumene concentrate, lithium mica, and other ores from 2024 to 2025 [8][9] - Lithium and lithium salt prices: Present the price trends of metal lithium, battery - grade and industrial - grade lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, and hexafluorophosphate from 2024 to 2025 [11][13][15] - Spreads: Show the price difference trends between battery - grade lithium hydroxide and battery - grade lithium carbonate, and other spreads from 2024 to 2025 [19][20][23] - Precursor & cathode materials: Display the price trends of ternary precursors, ternary materials, lithium iron phosphate, manganese acid lithium, and cobalt acid lithium from 2024 to 2025 [25][28][31] - Lithium battery prices: Illustrate the price trends of 523 square ternary cells, square lithium iron phosphate cells, cobalt acid lithium cells, and square lithium iron phosphate batteries from 2024 to 2025 [34][36] - Inventory: Show the inventory trends of downstream, smelters, and other links from February to September 2025 [39][41] - Production costs: Present the production profit trends of lithium carbonate from different raw materials from 2024 to 2025 [43]