Industry Investment Rating - No industry investment rating is provided in the report. Core Viewpoints - The zinc spot market is difficult to improve, even if the previous absolute price fell below 22,000 yuan/ton, the spot discount has not been repaired. The domestic and foreign trends still deviate, with continuous destocking of overseas inventories, increasing the risk of warehouse receipts, which forms a favorable support for prices. Domestically, consumption shows an obvious transition from the off - season to the peak season, with the downstream operating rate increasing month - on - month, but the domestic supply - side pressure remains. Although the domestic concentrate TC may decline later, the imported concentrate TC continues to rise, so the inventory accumulation expectation remains unchanged. [5] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Important Data - Spot: The LME zinc spot premium is $43.16 per ton. The SMM Shanghai zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton compared with the previous trading day, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton; the SMM Guangdong zinc spot price decreased by 50 yuan/ton to 21,830 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 75 yuan/ton; the Tianjin zinc spot price decreased by 60 yuan/ton to 21,820 yuan/ton, with a spot premium/discount of - 60 yuan/ton. [2] - Futures: On September 24, 2025, the main SHFE zinc contract opened at 21,895 yuan/ton, closed at 21,860 yuan/ton, down 95 yuan/ton from the previous trading day. The trading volume for the whole trading day was 109,733 lots, and the position was 141,867 lots. The highest intraday price reached 21,985 yuan/ton, and the lowest was 21,860 yuan/ton. [3] - Inventory: As of September 24, 2025, the total inventory of zinc ingots in seven regions monitored by SMM was 157,000 tons, a decrease of 1,500 tons from the previous period. As of the same date, the LME zinc inventory was 44,400 tons, a decrease of 1,375 tons from the previous trading day. [4] Market Analysis - The expectation of the Fed's interest - rate cut has increased again, leading to a general rise in non - ferrous metal prices. However, the zinc spot market is difficult to improve. The domestic and foreign trends deviate, with overseas destocking and increasing warehouse - receipt risks supporting prices. Domestically, consumption is transitioning from the off - season to the peak season, but supply - side pressure remains, and inventory accumulation is still expected. [5] Strategy - Unilateral: Neutral. [6] - Arbitrage: Neutral. [6]
新能源及有色金属日报：现货市场表现难有期待-20250925
Hua Tai Qi Huo·2025-09-25 05:21