固收专题报告：信用反内卷后怎么看煤炭和钢铁债？

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Views - Coal prices bottomed out and rebounded, and steel industry profits are slowly recovering. Whether it is driven by "anti - involution" remains to be explored [2][89]. - For coal, supply - side factors such as reduced production in major coal - producing areas and shrinking imported coal volumes, along with increased demand from power plants and high - profit steel mills, are expected to lead to a slight year - on - year decrease in coal production this year and a volatile coal price [4][89]. - The steel industry's profit is slowly recovering. Although real estate is a major drag, infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports support demand. However, long - term supply - demand pressure remains significant [4][89]. - In the secondary market, coal bonds have active trading, with the weekly number of traded bonds hitting a new high this year, and medium - to - long - term trading has become more active since the second quarter. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds [4][90]. - In terms of low - valuation trading, there are many low - valuation steel bonds within 1Y, and after the "anti - involution" policy in July, the number of low - valuation medium - to - long - term coal bonds has increased significantly [4][90]. - For investment strategies, for coal enterprises, those with high return requirements can focus on Jizhong Energy, Pingmei Group, and Kailuan Group within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration. For steel enterprises, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Shougang Group can appropriately extend the duration, and within 1.5Y, Hebei Iron & Steel Group and Shandong Iron & Steel Group can be considered [4][91][92]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Anti - Involution Impact 1.1 Coal: Coal Price Bottomed Out and Rebounded - Since 2024, coal prices have been in a downward trend. In 2025, coal prices bottomed out and rebounded in July. The main reasons include reduced coal supply due to extreme rainfall in major coal - producing areas, shrinking imported coal volumes, increased coal demand from power plants due to high temperatures, and high - profit steel mills driving up coking coal demand [4][8][19]. - It is expected that the annual coal production this year may be slightly lower than that in 2024, and coal prices will remain volatile [28][31][89]. 1.2 Steel: Profit Slowly Recovering - Steel prices first declined and then rebounded in 2025. The industry's profit has been repaired to a certain extent, with the total profit from January to July reaching 643.6 billion yuan, a new high in the past three years [32][33]. - On the demand side, real estate is a major drag, but infrastructure, manufacturing, and exports support steel demand. On the supply side, policies are guiding the control of production capacity, and the growth rate of crude steel production has been decreasing [38][39][42]. - Although "anti - involution" may help with profit repair, long - term supply - demand pressure remains [47]. 2. Secondary Market Observation of Coal and Steel Bonds 2.1 Overview of Outstanding Bonds - As of September 23, the outstanding scale of coal bonds is 727.8 billion yuan, and that of steel bonds is 440.6 billion yuan. Both are mainly concentrated in the 1.75 - 2.25% valuation range and are dominated by medium - and short - term bonds [48]. 2.2 Analysis of Coal Bonds - The valuation of coal bonds first increased and then decreased this year. Short - term bond yields are at a historically low level, while long - term yields have increased recently. The credit spreads of 1 - 3Y medium - and high - grade coal bonds have narrowed to a historically low level [56][58]. - For coal enterprises, those with high return requirements can focus on Jizhong Energy, Pingmei Group, and Kailuan Group within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration around large and high - quality coal enterprises [61]. 2.3 Analysis of Steel Bonds - The yields of steel bonds with different implicit ratings and maturities have declined to a low level since 2024. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, short - term low - grade steel bonds performed better [64]. - The credit spreads of 1 - 3Y medium - and high - grade steel bonds have continued to decline and are close to a historically low level. The current value of further credit - rating downgrading is not high, and high - grade bonds can appropriately extend the duration to about 3Y [68][70]. - For steel enterprises, Baoshan Iron & Steel Co., Ltd. and Shougang Group can appropriately extend the duration, within 1.5Y, Hebei Iron & Steel Group and Shandong Iron & Steel Group can be considered, and Liuzhou Iron & Steel Group can also be of interest to investors with high return requirements [73]. 2.4 Recent Characteristics of Secondary Market Transactions - Coal bonds have active trading, with the weekly number of traded bonds hitting a new high this year. Medium - to - long - term trading has become more active since the second quarter. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds [77][79]. - Since the first quarter of this year, the weekly number of low - valuation steel bond transactions has increased significantly. After the "anti - involution" policy in July, the number of low - valuation coal bond transactions has also increased, especially for medium - to - long - term coal bonds [83][86]. 3. Summary - Coal production decreased year - on - year in July, and it is expected that the annual coal production will slightly decrease year - on - year, with coal prices remaining volatile. The steel industry's profit is slowly recovering, but long - term supply - demand pressure remains [4][89]. - In the secondary market, coal bonds have active trading, and medium - to - long - term trading has become more active. Steel bonds have a significantly increased trading proportion in ultra - short - term bonds. The number of low - valuation medium - to - long - term coal bond transactions has increased recently [4][90]. - For investment strategies, coal enterprises with high return requirements can focus on certain enterprises within 2Y, and high - grade coal bonds can appropriately extend the duration. Steel enterprises should avoid those with deteriorating profitability and high short - term liquidity pressure, and different steel enterprises can be considered according to different duration and return requirements [4][91][92].