FICC日报：马士基WEEK42周报价开出，10月合约交割结算价格逐渐清晰-20250925

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The valuation of the October contract is becoming clearer, with the settlement price being the arithmetic average of SCFIS on October 13th, 20th, and 27th. The upper - half of October has seen a downward shift in the freight rate center, and the uncertainty lies in the actual implementation of the price increase in the lower - half of October [4]. - For the December contract, as it is far from delivery, trading focuses more on the rhythm. With Western holidays in the fourth quarter, the shipping volume is expected to remain high, but the risk lies in the bottom of the current freight rate decline and the potential impact of the transfer of US - bound ships to the European line [5]. - The strategy suggests shorting the October contract on rallies and expecting the December contract to be range - bound with an upward bias, and there is no arbitrage strategy at present [7]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Market Analysis - Online quotes show that the rates of some shipping companies have fluctuated. For example, Maersk's Shanghai - Rotterdam quotes increased in WEEK42, and HPL - SPOT's prices are set to rise in the lower - half of October and November [1]. - Different shipping alliances have different price trends. The MSC + Premier Alliance, Ocean Alliance, etc., have their own price quotes for different time periods and routes [2]. 3.2 Geopolitical and Capacity Information - Geopolitically, Iran's intelligence department has obtained a large amount of valuable information about Israel's nuclear projects [3]. - The weekly average capacity of the China - European base port in October is 272,600 TEU, and in November it is 285,200 TEU. There are 15 blank sailings in October and 4 blank sailings and 3 TBNs in November [3]. 3.3 Contract Analysis - October Contract: The freight rate center in the upper - half of October has dropped to around $1400/FEU. The SCFIS on October 13th is expected to be between 1000 - 1050 points, and the estimate for October 20th is similar. If the price increase in the lower - half of October is successful, the final settlement price may correspond to SCFIS of about 1130 - 1150 points; if it fails, the settlement price may be between 1000 - 1050 points [4]. - December Contract: Traders should focus on the rhythm. The shipping volume is expected to be high due to Western holidays, but the weak US - bound demand and potential ship transfers may affect the European line prices. The trading rhythm is expected to involve trading the price increase expectations and the actual implementation of price increase letters [5]. 3.4 Futures and Spot Prices - As of September 24, 2025, the total open interest of all contracts of the container shipping index European line futures is 82,002 lots, and the daily trading volume is 79,474 lots. The closing prices of different contracts such as EC2602, EC2604, etc., are provided [6]. - The SCFI prices for different routes (Shanghai - Europe, Shanghai - US West, Shanghai - US East) and SCFIS prices for European and US West routes as of September 19th and 15th are given [6]. 3.5 Container Ship Capacity Supply - 202 is still a big year for container ship deliveries. As of September 21, 2025, 196 container ships with a total capacity of 1.562 million TEU have been delivered, including 62 ships of 12,000 - 16,999 TEU with a total capacity of 935,000 TEU and 8 ships of over 17,000 TEU with a total capacity of 176,880 TEU [6].